OctagonEdge

The fight desk

Model the card.Read the tape.

Win probability, method, and duration from FightMetric differentials, style matchup rules, and contextual adjustments — the same stack professional desks use.

Live book · pulled 5h ago · 35 cards · Live book · 18 UFC cards.

Desk record

Official openings · 60–52 winners · 189 lines locked

54%

Next up

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Sat, Oct 17 · Rogers Place, Edmonton

Full card

Main event · 5 rounds

Joaquin Buckley
USAUSA

Buckley

Unranked · 21-8

VS
Mike Malott
CanadaCanada

Malott

Unranked · 14-2-1

Joaquin Buckley

38.5%

Mike Malott

61.5%

Model win probability · confidence 55%

Desk

38.5% / 61.5%

Market

42.8% / 57.2%

Moneyline

+127 / -143

Edge

−4.3% Malott

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk tracks the market on Malott. Not a betting tip.

Method

KO / TKO
36%
Submission
35%
Decision
29%

Most likely window

Round 1

Grappler historical edge: Malott (ground 51) into Buckley (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

Desk vs market

Where the model and Pinnacle disagree by 4 points or more.

LeBlanc / Galanti

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Desk 61%–39%Mkt 15%–85%+46.3% LeBlanc

Pico / Keita

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Desk 87%–13%Mkt 50%–50%+37.6% Pico

Nelson / Pérez

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Desk 53%–47%Mkt 25%–75%+27.4% Nelson

Jourdain / Cuamba

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Desk 87%–13%Mkt 61%–39%+25.9% Jourdain

Murzakanov / Reyes

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Desk 45%–55%Mkt 67%–33%+21.5% Reyes

Boser / Diniz

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Desk 54%–46%Mkt 35%–65%+19.2% Boser

Volkov / Kuniev

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Desk 69%–31%Mkt 52%–48%+17.7% Volkov

Barriault / Daukaus

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Desk 54%–46%Mkt 37%–63%+16.6% Barriault

Rest of the card

Erin Blanchfield64%–36%Jasmine JasudaviciusKyle Nelson53%–47%Cristian PérezMarc-Andre Barriault54%–46%Kyle DaukausLouis Jourdain87%–13%Timmy CuambaMandel Nallo78%–22%Nate LandwehrTanner Boser54%–46%Jhonata DinizJulien LeBlanc61%–39%Nick GalantiJavad Mahjoub37%–63%Joel FaglierKatlyn Cerminara62%–38%Mackenzie StillerChad Anheliger56%–44%Steven KoslowMelissa Croden59%–41%Chelsea ChandlerCody Chovancek51%–49%SuYoung You

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