OctagonEdge

The fight desk

Model the card.Read the tape.

Win probability, method, and duration from FightMetric differentials, style matchup rules, and contextual adjustments — the same stack professional desks use.

Live book · pulled 31h ago · 30 cards · Live book · 20 UFC cards.

Desk record

Official openings · 7–6 winners · 93 lines locked

54%

Next up

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Sat, Aug 29 · Shanghai Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai

Full card

Main event · 5 rounds

Umar Nurmagomedov
RussiaRussia

Nurmagomedov

Unranked · 20-1

VS
Song Yadong
ChinaChina

Yadong

Unranked · 23-9-1

Umar Nurmagomedov

86.3%

Song Yadong

13.7%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

Desk

86.3% / 13.7%

Market

80.9% / 19.1%

Moneyline

-525 / +404

Edge

+5.4% Nurmagomedov

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk leans off the market on Nurmagomedov. Not a betting tip.

Method

KO / TKO
25%
Submission
33%
Decision
42%

Most likely window

Distance

Grappler historical edge: Nurmagomedov (ground 64) into Yadong (TD reaction 52).

Desk vs market

Where the model and Pinnacle disagree by 4 points or more.

Aoriqileng / Asakura

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Desk 75%–25%Mkt 21%–79%+54.2% Aoriqileng

Xiaonan / Gomes

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Desk 15%–85%Mkt 58%–42%+43.6% Gomes

Meng / Nelson

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Desk 89%–11%Mkt 58%–42%+31.6% Meng

Long / Nuzzi

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Desk 90%–10%Mkt 61%–39%+29.0% Long

Lui / Santiago

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Desk 90%–10%Mkt 71%–29%+18.5% Lui

Batbayar / Lima

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Desk 46%–54%Mkt 29%–71%+16.7% Batbayar

Perez / Sumudaerji

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Desk 23%–77%Mkt 33%–67%+10.8% Sumudaerji

Hasan / Rojas

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Desk 91%–9%Mkt 84%–16%+7.4% Hasan

Rest of the card

Yan Xiaonan15%–85%Denise GomesAoriqileng75%–25%Kai AsakuraAlex Perez23%–77%SumudaerjiCe Liu33%–67%Junior TafaBilal Hasan91%–9%Nilson RojasNamsrai Batbayar46%–54%Andre LimaRei Tsuruya79%–21%Kevin BorjasJack Jenkins43%–57%Sean WoodsonXiao Long90%–10%Francesco NuzziLawrence Lui90%–10%Hector SantiagoJingnan Xiong13%–87%Julia PolastriDing Meng89%–11%Cameron Nelson

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Middleweight

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