OctagonEdge

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 10, 2026 · Aaron Pico 87% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita

Aaron Pico
USAUSA

Aaron Pico

Unranked · 14-5 · wrestler · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C+ 63

Jackson-Wink MMA · USA

VS
Losene Keita
BelgiumBelgium

Losene Keita

“Black Panther”

Unranked · 16-2 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C+ 63

Lamiro Fight Club · Belgium

Aaron Pico

87.4%

Losene Keita

12.6%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

Desk

87.4% / 12.6%

Market

49.8% / 50.2%

Moneyline

-107 / -109

Edge

+37.6% Pico

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Pico. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Pico 87 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Aaron Pico is the model side at 87.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. High-volume pressure against a counter striker. Who owns the center? Ground game is the clearest separator: Pico 70 (B) vs Keita 12 (D). Pico brings 6.5 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Keita's 100% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Pico

    Pico 70 (B) vs Keita 12 (D). Pico brings 6.5 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Keita's 100% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Pico

    Pico 69 (B) vs Keita 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Pico (6.2 SLpM at 54%).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Keita

    Keita 79 (B+) vs Pico 50 (D). When the shot comes, Keita stuffs it at 100% — Pico is at 59%.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Pico

    Pico 72 (B) vs Keita 57 (C). Pico absorbs 2.44/min at 56% defense; Keita is a softer target at 4.47 SApM.

Path · Pico

Volume. Pico wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Keita a clean reset.

Path · Keita

Keita has to stuff the first takedown (79 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 72 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Keita attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Standing exchanges with occasional clinch resets. Pico is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Keita is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -0 toward Keita — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Pico 70 (B) vs Keita 12 (D). Pico brings 6.5 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Keita's 100% takedown defense. Punching agility: Pico 69 (B) vs Keita 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Pico (6.2 SLpM at 54%). Takedown reaction: Keita 79 (B+) vs Pico 50 (D). When the shot comes, Keita stuffs it at 100% — Pico is at 59%.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (69%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Keita attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

PicoTraitKeita
63 C+
IQ
63 C+
70 B
Ground
12 D
72 B
Defense
57 C
34 D
Counter
36 D
53 C
Reaction
64 C+
69 B
Agility
38 D
50 D
TD react
79 B+
85 A
Chin
87 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
11%
Decision
69%

Standing exchanges with occasional clinch resets.

Duration

R1

12%

R2

9%

R3

10%

Dist

69%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.5 minutes.

Style matchup

High-volume pressure against a counter striker. Who owns the center?

  • Striking differential

    3.72 vs -2.49 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Pico

  • Damage ratio

    2.52 vs 0.43 landed/absorbed

    Pico

  • Ground game (tape)

    70 vs 12

    Pico

  • Output (SLpM)

    6.16 vs 1.90

    Pico

  • Takedown reaction

    59% vs 100% hips on the shot

    Keita

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Pico

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Pico

  • Striking efficiency

    54% vs 44%

    Pico

  • Striking defense

    56% vs 63%

    Keita

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C

    Pico

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 59% vs 90%

    Keita

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Keita

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/6 UFC rows

    Keita

  • Reach / length

    70.5" vs 72.0"

    Keita

  • Counter punching

    34 vs 36

    Keita

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Keita

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Pico

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 54

    Keita

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 63 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Keita

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 28

    Pico

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Pico

  • Style interaction

    High-volume pressure against a counter striker. Who owns the center?

    Pico

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Pico

Tape

PicoMetricKeita
6.16SLpM3.47
2.44SApM4.47
54%Str Acc44%
56%Str Def62%
6.54TD Avg0.00
50%TD Acc0%
59%TD Def100%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.00
5'11"Reach6'0"
29Age28

Aaron Pico

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Losene Keita

L

Nathaniel Wood

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Mar 21, 2026
W

Fighter 4911832

KO/TKO · R2 4:02

Dec 29, 2024
W

Fighter 4907504

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Sep 21, 2024
W

Fighter 5146309

KO/TKO · R2 4:50

Jul 20, 2024
W

Fighter 4704095

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

May 4, 2024
W

Fighter 5193150

KO/TKO · R2 0:23

Dec 9, 2023

Your pick

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