UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Bantamweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Sep 20, 2026 · Cody Chovancek 51% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (SuYoung You / Submission)
Cody Chovancek vs SuYoung You
CanadaCody Chovancek
“The Best Fisherman in MMA”
Unranked · 9-0 · striker · Switch · 28 · IQ B+ 78
Niagara Top Team · Canada
South KoreaSuYoung You
“Yoo-Jitsu”
Unranked · 16-4 · wrestler · Orthodox · 30 · IQ B 69
Von Jiu Jitsu · South Korea
Cody Chovancek
50.9%
SuYoung You
49.1%
Model win probability · confidence 43%
Desk
50.9% / 49.1%
Market
52.9% / 47.1%
Moneyline
-120 / +106
Edge
−2.0% You
Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk tracks the market on You. Not a betting tip.
Why the model leans this way
Chovancek 51 — the tape favors pocket striker
Cody Chovancek is the model side at 50.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: You (ground 68) into Chovancek (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: You 68 (C+) vs Chovancek 16 (D). You brings 4.3 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Chovancek's 85% takedown defense.
- 01
Ground game
YouYou 68 (C+) vs Chovancek 16 (D). You brings 4.3 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Chovancek's 85% takedown defense.
- 02
Takedown reaction
ChovancekChovancek 69 (B) vs You 55 (C). When the shot comes, Chovancek stuffs it at 85% — You is at 68%.
- 03
Timing & reaction
ChovancekChovancek 68 (C+) vs You 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Chovancek.
- 04
Fight IQ
ChovancekChovancek 78 (B+) vs You 69 (B). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Chovancek (B+ vs B).
Path · Chovancek
Chovancek has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
Path · You
You has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Chovancek defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Chovancek is built as: Pocket striker. You is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +9 toward Chovancek — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Ground game: You 68 (C+) vs Chovancek 16 (D). You brings 4.3 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Chovancek's 85% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Chovancek 69 (B) vs You 55 (C). When the shot comes, Chovancek stuffs it at 85% — You is at 68%. Timing & reaction: Chovancek 68 (C+) vs You 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Chovancek.
The finish path leans strikes (27% KO/TKO vs 26% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
22%
R2
15%
R3
17%
Dist
47%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.7 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: You (ground 68) into Chovancek (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Ground game (tape)
16 vs 68
YouStriking differential
-0.75 vs -1.70 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
ChovancekGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
YouFight IQ
B+ 78 vs B 69 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
ChovancekTakedown reaction
85% vs 68% hips on the shot
ChovancekDamage ratio
0.79 vs 0.56 landed/absorbed
ChovancekOutput (SLpM)
2.85 vs 2.15
ChovancekTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
ChovancekRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows
ChovancekCounter punching
54 vs 49
ChovancekReach / length
67.0" vs 65.0"
ChovancekPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
ChovancekStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: You (ground 68) into Chovancek (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
YouTakedown mismatch
TD def 85% vs 68%
ChovancekStriking defense
62% vs 64%
YouPocket defense (tape)
C+ vs C+
ChovancekStriking efficiency
62% vs 63%
YouDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
ChovancekCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
ChovancekAge-adjusted curve
28 vs 30
ChovancekStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 50 vs 50
ChovancekLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
ChovancekChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Chovancek
Tape
Cody Chovancek
No recent UFC tape in the book.
SuYoung You
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
Desk briefing
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