OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Tanner Boser 54% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz

Tanner Boser
CanadaCanada

Tanner Boser

“The Bulldozer”

Unranked · 22-11-1 · striker · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C 56

Shaved Bears MMA · Canada

VS
Jhonata Diniz
BrazilBrazil

Jhonata Diniz

Unranked · 9-2 · striker · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C+ 62

Santa Fe Team · Brazil

Tanner Boser

54.4%

Jhonata Diniz

45.6%

Model win probability · confidence 47%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Boser 54 — the tape favors pocket striker

Tanner Boser is the model side at 54.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Diniz 55 (C) vs Boser 46 (D). Diniz's return is the live one (0.51 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Boser's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Diniz

    Diniz 55 (C) vs Boser 46 (D). Diniz's return is the live one (0.51 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Boser's entries.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Diniz

    Diniz 62 (C+) vs Boser 56 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Diniz (C+ vs C).

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Diniz

    Diniz 67 (C+) vs Boser 64 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Diniz.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Boser

    Boser 61 (C+) vs Diniz 58 (C). Hand speed / output lean Boser (4.8 SLpM at 59%).

Path · Boser

Boser wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Diniz a long look at durability.

Path · Diniz

Diniz wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Boser a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Boser is built as: Pocket striker. Diniz is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -7 toward Diniz — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Diniz 55 (C) vs Boser 46 (D). Diniz's return is the live one (0.51 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Boser's entries. Fight IQ: Diniz 62 (C+) vs Boser 56 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Diniz (C+ vs C). Timing & reaction: Diniz 67 (C+) vs Boser 64 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Diniz.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (49%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BoserTraitDiniz
56 C
IQ
62 C+
14 D
Ground
12 D
67 C+
Defense
65 C+
46 D
Counter
55 C
64 C+
Reaction
67 C+
61 C+
Agility
58 C
69 B
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
42%
Submission
9%
Decision
49%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

14%

R3

15%

Dist

49%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.8 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    1.91 vs 0.65 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Boser

  • Damage ratio

    1.66 vs 1.20 landed/absorbed

    Boser

  • Fight IQ

    C 56 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Diniz

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.82 vs 3.89

    Boser

  • Reach / length

    75.5" vs 79.5"

    Diniz

  • Counter punching

    46 vs 55

    Diniz

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Diniz

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 60%

    Diniz

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Boser

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Diniz

  • Ground game (tape)

    14 vs 12

    Boser

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Boser

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Boser

  • Striking efficiency

    59% vs 59%

    Boser

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Boser

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Boser

  • Age-adjusted curve

    35 vs 35

    Boser

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Boser

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Boser

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Boser

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Boser

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Boser

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Boser

Tape

BoserMetricDiniz
4.82SLpM3.89
2.91SApM3.24
59%Str Acc59%
58%Str Def60%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.25KD/150.51
6'4"Reach6'8"
35Age35

Tanner Boser

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Jhonata Diniz

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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