OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Women's Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Melissa Croden 59% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler

Melissa Croden
CanadaCanada

Melissa Croden

“Scare”

Unranked · 8-3 · striker · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C+ 62

Alavanca · Canada

VS
Chelsea Chandler
USAUSA

Chelsea Chandler

Unranked · 7-4 · striker · Southpaw · 35 · IQ C+ 62

Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu · USA

Melissa Croden

58.8%

Chelsea Chandler

41.2%

Model win probability · confidence 52%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Croden 59 — the tape favors pocket striker

Melissa Croden is the model side at 58.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Croden 45 (D) vs Chandler 39 (D). Croden brings 2.0 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Chandler's 82% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Croden

    Croden 45 (D) vs Chandler 39 (D). Croden brings 2.0 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Chandler's 82% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Croden

    Croden 55 (C) vs Chandler 49 (D). Hand speed / output lean Croden (4.3 SLpM at 56%).

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Chandler

    Chandler 62 (C+) vs Croden 60 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Chandler.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Croden

    Croden 66 (C+) vs Chandler 64 (C+). Croden absorbs 3.11/min at 59% defense; Chandler is a softer target at 3.37 SApM.

Path · Croden

Croden wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Chandler a long look at durability.

Path · Chandler

Chandler wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Croden a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Croden is built as: Pocket striker. Chandler is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +1 toward Croden — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Croden 45 (D) vs Chandler 39 (D). Croden brings 2.0 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Chandler's 82% takedown defense. Punching agility: Croden 55 (C) vs Chandler 49 (D). Hand speed / output lean Croden (4.3 SLpM at 56%). Timing & reaction: Chandler 62 (C+) vs Croden 60 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Chandler.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (54%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

CrodenTraitChandler
62 C+
IQ
62 C+
45 D
Ground
39 D
66 C+
Defense
64 C+
47 D
Counter
49 D
60 C+
Reaction
62 C+
55 C
Agility
49 D
66 C+
TD react
68 C+
85 A
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
32%
Submission
14%
Decision
54%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

13%

R3

14%

Dist

54%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    1.16 vs 0.15 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Croden

  • Damage ratio

    1.37 vs 1.04 landed/absorbed

    Croden

  • Ground game (tape)

    45 vs 39

    Croden

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.27 vs 3.52

    Croden

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Croden

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Croden

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Croden

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 61%

    Chandler

  • Striking efficiency

    56% vs 55%

    Croden

  • Takedown reaction

    77% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Chandler

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Croden

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Chandler

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 62 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Croden

  • Counter punching

    47 vs 49

    Chandler

  • Reach / length

    68.5" vs 68.0"

    Croden

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Croden

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 77% vs 82%

    Chandler

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Croden

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Croden

  • Age-adjusted curve

    35 vs 35

    Croden

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Croden

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Croden

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Croden

Tape

CrodenMetricChandler
4.27SLpM3.52
3.11SApM3.37
56%Str Acc55%
59%Str Def61%
2.02TD Avg0.81
50%TD Acc60%
77%TD Def82%
0.34Sub Avg0.27
0.25KD/150.25
5'9"Reach5'8"
35Age35

Melissa Croden

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Chelsea Chandler

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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