OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Erin Blanchfield 64% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

Erin Blanchfield
USAUSA

Erin Blanchfield

“Cold Blooded”

Unranked · 14-2 · striker · Orthodox · 27 · IQ B 71

Silver Fox BJJ · USA

VS
Jasmine Jasudavicius
CanadaCanada

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Unranked · 15-4 · hybrid · Orthodox · 37 · IQ B 72

Niagara Top Team · Canada

Erin Blanchfield

63.6%

Jasmine Jasudavicius

36.4%

Model win probability · confidence 58%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Blanchfield 64 — the tape favors pocket striker

Erin Blanchfield is the model side at 63.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Jasudavicius 50 (D) vs Blanchfield 37 (D). Jasudavicius's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Blanchfield's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Jasudavicius

    Jasudavicius 50 (D) vs Blanchfield 37 (D). Jasudavicius's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Blanchfield's entries.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Blanchfield

    Blanchfield 62 (C+) vs Jasudavicius 51 (C). Hand speed / output lean Blanchfield (5.2 SLpM at 53%).

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Blanchfield

    Blanchfield 62 (C+) vs Jasudavicius 55 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Blanchfield.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Blanchfield

    Blanchfield 69 (B) vs Jasudavicius 64 (C+). Blanchfield absorbs 2.77/min at 58% defense; Jasudavicius is a softer target at 3.39 SApM.

Path · Blanchfield

Volume. Blanchfield wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Jasudavicius a clean reset.

Path · Jasudavicius

Jasudavicius wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Blanchfield a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Blanchfield is built as: Pocket striker. Jasudavicius is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -0 toward Jasudavicius — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Jasudavicius 50 (D) vs Blanchfield 37 (D). Jasudavicius's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Blanchfield's entries. Punching agility: Blanchfield 62 (C+) vs Jasudavicius 51 (C). Hand speed / output lean Blanchfield (5.2 SLpM at 53%). Timing & reaction: Blanchfield 62 (C+) vs Jasudavicius 55 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Blanchfield.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (56%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BlanchfieldTraitJasudavicius
71 B
IQ
72 B
52 C
Ground
55 C
69 B
Defense
64 C+
37 D
Counter
50 D
62 C+
Reaction
55 C
62 C+
Agility
51 C
66 C+
TD react
65 C+
82 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
18%
Submission
26%
Decision
56%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

18%

R2

12%

R3

14%

Dist

56%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.5 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid.

  • Striking differential

    2.47 vs 0.08 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Blanchfield

  • Damage ratio

    1.89 vs 1.02 landed/absorbed

    Blanchfield

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.24 vs 3.47

    Blanchfield

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 50

    Jasudavicius

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 60%

    Jasudavicius

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Blanchfield

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 61%

    Jasudavicius

  • Age-adjusted curve

    27 vs 37

    Blanchfield

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Blanchfield

  • Reach / length

    66.0" vs 68.0"

    Jasudavicius

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Blanchfield

  • Ground game (tape)

    52 vs 55

    Jasudavicius

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Blanchfield

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Jasudavicius

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Jasudavicius

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Blanchfield

  • Takedown reaction

    77% vs 74% hips on the shot

    Blanchfield

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 77% vs 74%

    Blanchfield

  • Fight IQ

    B 71 vs B 72 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Jasudavicius

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Blanchfield

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid.

    Blanchfield

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Blanchfield

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Blanchfield

Tape

BlanchfieldMetricJasudavicius
5.24SLpM3.47
2.77SApM3.39
53%Str Acc60%
58%Str Def61%
1.96TD Avg2.63
34%TD Acc46%
77%TD Def74%
0.86Sub Avg0.54
0.10KD/150.10
5'6"Reach5'8"
27Age37

Erin Blanchfield

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Jasmine Jasudavicius

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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