OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Welterweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Mike Malott 62% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · waiting on the result

Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott

Joaquin Buckley
USAUSA

Joaquin Buckley

“New Mansa”

Unranked · 21-8 · hybrid · Southpaw · 32 · IQ C 57

Murcielago MMA · USA

VS
Mike Malott
CanadaCanada

Mike Malott

“Proper”

Unranked · 14-2-1 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ B 68

Niagara Top Team · Canada

Joaquin Buckley

38.5%

Mike Malott

61.5%

Model win probability · confidence 55%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Malott 62 — the tape favors pocket striker

Mike Malott is the model side at 61.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Malott (ground 51) into Buckley (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Malott 51 (C) vs Buckley 33 (D). Malott brings 1.6 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Buckley's 79% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Malott

    Malott 51 (C) vs Buckley 33 (D). Malott brings 1.6 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Buckley's 79% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Malott

    Malott 68 (B) vs Buckley 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Malott (B vs C).

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Malott

    Malott 56 (C) vs Buckley 46 (D). Hand speed / output lean Malott (4.0 SLpM at 52%).

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Malott

    Malott 49 (D) vs Buckley 43 (D). Malott's return is the live one (0.49 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Buckley's entries.

Path · Buckley

Buckley has to stuff the first takedown (67 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 65 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Malott

Malott has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Buckley defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Malott is built as: Pocket striker. Buckley is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +12 toward Malott — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Malott 51 (C) vs Buckley 33 (D). Malott brings 1.6 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Buckley's 79% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Malott 68 (B) vs Buckley 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Malott (B vs C). Punching agility: Malott 56 (C) vs Buckley 46 (D). Hand speed / output lean Malott (4.0 SLpM at 52%).

The finish path leans strikes (36% KO/TKO vs 35% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BuckleyTraitMalott
57 C
IQ
68 B
33 D
Ground
51 C
64 C+
Defense
65 C+
43 D
Counter
49 D
68 B
Reaction
64 C+
46 D
Agility
56 C
67 C+
TD react
66 C+
85 A
Chin
80 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
36%
Submission
35%
Decision
29%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

33%

R2

19%

R3

14%

R4

2%

R5

3%

Dist

29%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 12.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Malott (ground 51) into Buckley (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    33 vs 51

    Malott

  • Fight IQ

    C 57 vs B 68 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Malott

  • Striking differential

    0.29 vs 0.83 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Malott

  • Striking efficiency

    40% vs 52%

    Malott

  • Damage ratio

    1.09 vs 1.26 landed/absorbed

    Malott

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Malott

  • Reach / length

    76.0" vs 73.0"

    Buckley

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Malott

  • Counter punching

    43 vs 49

    Malott

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Malott

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.62 vs 4.02

    Malott

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Malott (ground 51) into Buckley (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Malott

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Buckley

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Buckley

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 34

    Buckley

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 60%

    Buckley

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Malott

  • Takedown reaction

    79% vs 78% hips on the shot

    Buckley

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Malott

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 79% vs 78%

    Buckley

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Buckley

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Buckley

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Buckley

Tape

BuckleyMetricMalott
3.62SLpM4.02
3.33SApM3.19
40%Str Acc52%
61%Str Def60%
1.43TD Avg1.63
45%TD Acc50%
79%TD Def78%
0.08Sub Avg0.65
0.58KD/150.49
6'4"Reach6'1"
32Age34

Joaquin Buckley

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Mike Malott

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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