OctagonEdge

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Dominick Reyes 55% · KO/TKO · Distance · waiting on the result

Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes

Azamat Murzakanov
RussiaRussia

Azamat Murzakanov

“The Professional”

Unranked · 16-1 · striker · Southpaw · 37 · IQ C+ 67

K Dojo · Russia

VS
Dominick Reyes
USAUSA

Dominick Reyes

“The Devastator”

#7 · 16-5 · striker · Southpaw · 36 · IQ C+ 64

Joe Stevenson's Cobra Kai · USA

Azamat Murzakanov

45.2%

Dominick Reyes

54.8%

Model win probability · confidence 48%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Reyes 55 — the tape favors power striker

Dominick Reyes is the model side at 54.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Durability is the clearest separator: Murzakanov 85 (A) vs Reyes 72 (B). Murzakanov has been finished by strikes 0 times; Reyes 0.

  1. 01

    Durability

    Murzakanov

    Murzakanov 85 (A) vs Reyes 72 (B). Murzakanov has been finished by strikes 0 times; Reyes 0.

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Reyes

    Reyes 68 (C+) vs Murzakanov 60 (C+). Reyes's return is the live one (0.80 KD/15, 9 KOs) against Murzakanov's entries.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Murzakanov

    Murzakanov 67 (C+) vs Reyes 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Murzakanov (C+ vs C+).

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Reyes

    Reyes 68 (C+) vs Murzakanov 66 (C+). Reyes absorbs 2.85/min at 58% defense; Murzakanov is a softer target at 3.06 SApM.

Path · Murzakanov

Murzakanov wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Reyes a long look at durability.

Path · Reyes

Reyes wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Murzakanov a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Reyes is built as: Power striker — southpaw. Murzakanov is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is -3 toward Murzakanov — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Durability: Murzakanov 85 (A) vs Reyes 72 (B). Murzakanov has been finished by strikes 0 times; Reyes 0. Counter punching: Reyes 68 (C+) vs Murzakanov 60 (C+). Reyes's return is the live one (0.80 KD/15, 9 KOs) against Murzakanov's entries. Fight IQ: Murzakanov 67 (C+) vs Reyes 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Murzakanov (C+ vs C+).

The finish path leans strikes (53% KO/TKO vs 11% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MurzakanovTraitReyes
67 C+
IQ
64 C+
24 D
Ground
23 D
66 C+
Defense
68 C+
60 C+
Counter
68 C+
68 C+
Reaction
67 C+
66 C+
Agility
66 C+
68 C+
TD react
68 B
85 A
Chin
72 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
53%
Submission
11%
Decision
35%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

34%

R2

16%

R3

15%

Dist

35%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    1.34 vs 2.14 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Reyes

  • Damage ratio

    1.44 vs 1.75 landed/absorbed

    Reyes

  • Reach / length

    71.5" vs 77.0"

    Reyes

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Murzakanov

  • Counter punching

    60 vs 68

    Reyes

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.40 vs 4.99

    Reyes

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Murzakanov

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 67 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Murzakanov

  • Striking efficiency

    58% vs 56%

    Murzakanov

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 58%

    Murzakanov

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Reyes

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Murzakanov

  • Age-adjusted curve

    37 vs 36

    Reyes

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Murzakanov

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 84% hips on the shot

    Reyes

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Reyes

  • Ground game (tape)

    24 vs 23

    Murzakanov

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 84%

    Reyes

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Murzakanov

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Murzakanov

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Murzakanov

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Murzakanov

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Murzakanov

Tape

MurzakanovMetricReyes
4.40SLpM4.99
3.06SApM2.85
58%Str Acc56%
59%Str Def58%
0.68TD Avg0.25
20%TD Acc29%
82%TD Def84%
0.23Sub Avg0.25
0.99KD/150.80
5'12"Reach6'5"
37Age36

Azamat Murzakanov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Dominick Reyes

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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