OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 9, 2026 · Kyle Nelson 53% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Pérez

Kyle Nelson
CanadaCanada

Kyle Nelson

“The Monster”

Unranked · 17-7-1 · striker · Switch · 35 · IQ C+ 62

House Of Champions · Canada

VS
Cristian Pérez
MexicoMexico

Cristian Pérez

“Puas”

Unranked · 15-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 27 · IQ B+ 77

The Goat Shed · Mexico

Kyle Nelson

52.8%

Cristian Pérez

47.2%

Model win probability · confidence 45%

Desk

52.8% / 47.2%

Market

25.4% / 74.6%

Moneyline

+282 / -330

Edge

+27.4% Nelson

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Nelson. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Nelson 53 — the tape favors pocket striker

Kyle Nelson is the model side at 52.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Pérez (ground 71) into Nelson (TD reaction 63). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Pérez 71 (B) vs Nelson 36 (D). Pérez brings 3.5 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Nelson's 80% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Pérez

    Pérez 71 (B) vs Nelson 36 (D). Pérez brings 3.5 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Nelson's 80% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Pérez

    Pérez 77 (B+) vs Nelson 62 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Pérez (B+ vs C+).

  3. 03

    Durability

    Nelson

    Nelson 85 (A) vs Pérez 81 (B+). Nelson has been finished by strikes 0 times; Pérez 0.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Nelson

    Nelson 64 (C+) vs Pérez 61 (C+). Nelson absorbs 3.34/min at 61% defense; Pérez is a softer target at 4.14 SApM.

Path · Nelson

Nelson has to stuff the first takedown (63 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Pérez

Pérez has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Nelson defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Nelson is built as: Pocket striker. Pérez is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -14 toward Pérez — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Pérez 71 (B) vs Nelson 36 (D). Pérez brings 3.5 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Nelson's 80% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Pérez 77 (B+) vs Nelson 62 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Pérez (B+ vs C+). Durability: Nelson 85 (A) vs Pérez 81 (B+). Nelson has been finished by strikes 0 times; Pérez 0.

The finish path leans the mat (29% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

NelsonTraitPérez
62 C+
IQ
77 B+
36 D
Ground
71 B
64 C+
Defense
61 C+
46 D
Counter
50 D
61 C+
Reaction
60 C+
47 D
Agility
49 D
63 C+
TD react
64 C+
85 A
Chin
81 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
26%
Submission
29%
Decision
46%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

15%

R3

17%

Dist

46%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Pérez (ground 71) into Nelson (TD reaction 63). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    0.26 vs -2.83 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Nelson

  • Ground game (tape)

    36 vs 71

    Pérez

  • Damage ratio

    1.08 vs 0.32 landed/absorbed

    Nelson

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 62 vs B+ 77 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Pérez

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.60 vs 1.31

    Nelson

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Pérez

  • Striking efficiency

    52% vs 66%

    Pérez

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 65%

    Pérez

  • Age-adjusted curve

    35 vs 27

    Pérez

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Pérez

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Pérez (ground 71) into Nelson (TD reaction 63). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Pérez

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Nelson

  • Counter punching

    46 vs 50

    Pérez

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Nelson

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 72.0"

    Pérez

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Nelson

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 80% vs 71%

    Nelson

  • Takedown reaction

    80% vs 71% hips on the shot

    Pérez

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Nelson

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Pérez

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Nelson

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Nelson

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Nelson

Tape

NelsonMetricPérez
3.60SLpM1.31
3.34SApM4.14
52%Str Acc66%
61%Str Def65%
1.18TD Avg3.46
23%TD Acc38%
80%TD Def71%
0.52Sub Avg1.15
0.22KD/150.16
5'11"Reach6'0"
35Age27

Kyle Nelson

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Cristian Pérez

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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