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UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 25, 2026 · Chad Anheliger 56% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow

Chad Anheliger
CanadaCanada

Chad Anheliger

“The Monster”

Unranked · 13-8 · striker · Orthodox · 39 · IQ C 51

Champion's Creed MMA · Canada

VS
Steven Koslow
USAUSA

Steven Koslow

“Obi Won Shinobi the Pillow”

Unranked · 6-1 · wrestler · Switch · 29 · IQ C 50

10th Planet Jiu Jitsu · USA

Chad Anheliger

56.2%

Steven Koslow

43.8%

Model win probability · confidence 49%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Anheliger 56 — the tape favors pocket striker

Chad Anheliger is the model side at 56.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Koslow (ground 89) into Anheliger (TD reaction 54). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Koslow 89 (A) vs Anheliger 33 (D). Koslow brings 5.3 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Anheliger's 82% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Koslow

    Koslow 89 (A) vs Anheliger 33 (D). Koslow brings 5.3 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Anheliger's 82% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Durability

    Anheliger

    Anheliger 85 (A) vs Koslow 65 (C+). Anheliger has been finished by strikes 0 times; Koslow 0.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Anheliger

    Anheliger 47 (D) vs Koslow 33 (D). Anheliger's return is the live one (0.13 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Koslow's entries.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Anheliger

    Anheliger 44 (D) vs Koslow 34 (D). Hand speed / output lean Anheliger (3.1 SLpM at 57%).

Path · Anheliger

Anheliger has to stuff the first takedown (54 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Koslow

Koslow has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Anheliger defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Anheliger is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Koslow is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler. Fight IQ delta is +0 toward Anheliger — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Koslow 89 (A) vs Anheliger 33 (D). Koslow brings 5.3 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Anheliger's 82% takedown defense. Durability: Anheliger 85 (A) vs Koslow 65 (C+). Anheliger has been finished by strikes 0 times; Koslow 0. Counter punching: Anheliger 47 (D) vs Koslow 33 (D). Anheliger's return is the live one (0.13 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Koslow's entries.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (50%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AnheligerTraitKoslow
51 C
IQ
50 C
33 D
Ground
89 A
63 C+
Defense
61 C+
47 D
Counter
33 D
58 C
Reaction
56 C
44 D
Agility
34 D
54 C
TD react
61 C+
85 A
Chin
65 C+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
22%
Submission
28%
Decision
50%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

20%

R2

14%

R3

16%

Dist

50%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Koslow (ground 89) into Anheliger (TD reaction 54). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -0.40 vs -3.56 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Anheliger

  • Ground game (tape)

    33 vs 89

    Koslow

  • Damage ratio

    0.89 vs 0.18 landed/absorbed

    Anheliger

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Koslow

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.11 vs 0.77

    Anheliger

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Anheliger

  • Counter punching

    47 vs 33

    Anheliger

  • Striking efficiency

    57% vs 48%

    Anheliger

  • Reach / length

    64.5" vs 69.0"

    Koslow

  • Age-adjusted curve

    39 vs 29

    Koslow

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 66%

    Koslow

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Koslow

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Anheliger

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 64% hips on the shot

    Koslow

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Koslow (ground 89) into Anheliger (TD reaction 54). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Koslow

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 64%

    Anheliger

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Anheliger

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Anheliger

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Anheliger

  • Fight IQ

    C 51 vs C 50 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Anheliger

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Anheliger

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Anheliger

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Anheliger

Tape

AnheligerMetricKoslow
3.11SLpM0.77
3.51SApM4.33
57%Str Acc48%
62%Str Def66%
0.68TD Avg5.28
31%TD Acc56%
82%TD Def64%
0.51Sub Avg1.06
0.13KD/150.10
5'5"Reach5'9"
39Age29

Chad Anheliger

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Steven Koslow

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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