OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Louis Jourdain 87% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba

Louis Jourdain
CanadaCanada

Louis Jourdain

“Mad Prince”

Unranked · 9-3 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C 57

Brazilian Top Team Canada · Canada

VS
Timmy Cuamba
USAUSA

Timmy Cuamba

“Twilight”

Unranked · 10-4 · hybrid · Orthodox · 27 · IQ C 51

Xtreme Couture · USA

Louis Jourdain

86.7%

Timmy Cuamba

13.3%

Model win probability · confidence 84%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Jourdain 87 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Louis Jourdain is the model side at 86.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Jourdain 72 (B) vs Cuamba 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Jourdain (7.3 SLpM at 53%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Jourdain

    Jourdain 72 (B) vs Cuamba 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Jourdain (7.3 SLpM at 53%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Cuamba

    Cuamba 39 (D) vs Jourdain 27 (D). Cuamba's return is the live one (0.20 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Jourdain's entries.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Jourdain

    Jourdain 73 (B) vs Cuamba 63 (C+). Jourdain absorbs 2.04/min at 53% defense; Cuamba is a softer target at 3.59 SApM.

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Jourdain

    Jourdain 35 (D) vs Cuamba 26 (D). Jourdain brings 0.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Cuamba's 80% takedown defense.

Path · Jourdain

Jourdain has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Cuamba defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Cuamba

Cuamba wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Jourdain a long look at durability.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Cuamba attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Jourdain is built as: Volume pressure striker. Cuamba is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward Jourdain — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Jourdain 72 (B) vs Cuamba 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Jourdain (7.3 SLpM at 53%). Counter punching: Cuamba 39 (D) vs Jourdain 27 (D). Cuamba's return is the live one (0.20 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Jourdain's entries. Striking defense: Jourdain 73 (B) vs Cuamba 63 (C+). Jourdain absorbs 2.04/min at 53% defense; Cuamba is a softer target at 3.59 SApM.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (53%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Cuamba attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

JourdainTraitCuamba
57 C
IQ
51 C
35 D
Ground
26 D
73 B
Defense
63 C+
27 D
Counter
39 D
65 C+
Reaction
64 C+
72 B
Agility
43 D
55 C
TD react
54 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
19%
Submission
28%
Decision
53%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

53%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.2 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid.

  • Striking differential

    5.28 vs -0.71 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Jourdain

  • Damage ratio

    3.59 vs 0.80 landed/absorbed

    Jourdain

  • Output (SLpM)

    7.32 vs 2.88

    Jourdain

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Jourdain

  • Striking defense

    53% vs 62%

    Cuamba

  • Ground game (tape)

    35 vs 26

    Jourdain

  • Fight IQ

    C 57 vs C 51 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Jourdain

  • Counter punching

    27 vs 39

    Cuamba

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Jourdain

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Jourdain

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 46%

    Jourdain

  • Reach / length

    69.0" vs 71.0"

    Cuamba

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Jourdain

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 80% hips on the shot

    Jourdain

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 27

    Cuamba

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Jourdain

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 80%

    Jourdain

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Jourdain

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Cuamba

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Jourdain

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid.

    Jourdain

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Jourdain

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Jourdain

Tape

JourdainMetricCuamba
7.32SLpM2.88
2.04SApM3.59
53%Str Acc46%
53%Str Def62%
0.00TD Avg1.18
0%TD Acc32%
85%TD Def80%
1.41Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.20
5'9"Reach5'11"
29Age27

Louis Jourdain

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Timmy Cuamba

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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