OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 11, 2026 · Katlyn Cerminara 62% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Katlyn Cerminara / KO/TKO)

Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller

Katlyn Cerminara
USAUSA

Katlyn Cerminara

“Blonde Fighter”

#3 · 18-6 · striker · Orthodox · 37 · IQ C 51

Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu · USA

VS
Mackenzie Stiller
USAUSA

Mackenzie Stiller

“Mack-Judo”

Unranked · 6-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 27 · IQ C+ 62

One Touch Fight Team · USA

Katlyn Cerminara

61.6%

Mackenzie Stiller

38.4%

Model win probability · confidence 57%

Desk

61.6% / 38.4%

Market

68.5% / 31.5%

Moneyline

-239 / +209

Edge

−6.9% Stiller

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk leans off the market on Stiller. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Cerminara 62 — the tape favors pocket striker

Katlyn Cerminara is the model side at 61.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Stiller 69 (B) vs Cerminara 33 (D). When the shot comes, Stiller stuffs it at 85% — Cerminara is at 50%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Stiller

    Stiller 69 (B) vs Cerminara 33 (D). When the shot comes, Stiller stuffs it at 85% — Cerminara is at 50%.

  2. 02

    Timing & reaction

    Stiller

    Stiller 59 (C) vs Cerminara 36 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Stiller.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Stiller

    Stiller 62 (C+) vs Cerminara 51 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Stiller (C+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Durability

    Cerminara

    Cerminara 77 (B+) vs Stiller 68 (C+). Cerminara has been finished by strikes 0 times; Stiller 0.

Path · Cerminara

Volume. Cerminara wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Stiller a clean reset.

Path · Stiller

Stiller wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Cerminara a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Cerminara is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Stiller is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -11 toward Stiller — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Stiller 69 (B) vs Cerminara 33 (D). When the shot comes, Stiller stuffs it at 85% — Cerminara is at 50%. Timing & reaction: Stiller 59 (C) vs Cerminara 36 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Stiller. Fight IQ: Stiller 62 (C+) vs Cerminara 51 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Stiller (C+ vs C).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (72%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

CerminaraTraitStiller
51 C
IQ
62 C+
20 D
Ground
21 D
53 C
Defense
57 C
33 D
Counter
37 D
36 D
Reaction
59 C
32 D
Agility
39 D
33 D
TD react
69 B
77 B+
Chin
68 C+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
16%
Submission
12%
Decision
72%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

11%

R2

8%

R3

9%

Dist

72%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.8 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid.

  • Striking differential

    -1.62 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Cerminara

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.78 vs 0.00

    Cerminara

  • Striking efficiency

    36% vs 0%

    Cerminara

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 1/0 UFC rows

    Stiller

  • Takedown reaction

    50% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Stiller

  • Damage ratio

    0.75 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Cerminara

  • Fight IQ

    C 51 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Stiller

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Stiller

  • Reach / length

    68.0" vs 62.0"

    Cerminara

  • Striking defense

    63% vs 68%

    Stiller

  • Age-adjusted curve

    37 vs 27

    Stiller

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Cerminara

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 66 vs 50

    Cerminara

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Cerminara

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Stiller

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Stiller

  • Counter punching

    33 vs 37

    Stiller

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Stiller

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Stiller

  • Ground game (tape)

    20 vs 21

    Stiller

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 48% vs 85%

    Stiller

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid.

    Cerminara

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Cerminara

Tape

CerminaraMetricStiller
4.58SLpM0.00
6.53SApM4.60
41%Str Acc0%
65%Str Def68%
0.31TD Avg0.00
16%TD Acc0%
50%TD Def85%
0.31Sub Avg0.00
0.00KD/150.10
5'8"Reach5'2"
37Age27

Katlyn Cerminara

L

Manon Fiorot

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Oct 22, 2022

Mackenzie Stiller

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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