OctagonEdge

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Alexander Volkov 69% · KO/TKO · Distance · waiting on the result

Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev

Alexander Volkov
RussiaRussia

Alexander Volkov

“Drago”

#6 · 40-11 · striker · Orthodox · 37 · IQ B 72

Strela Team · Russia

VS
Rizvan Kuniev
RussiaRussia

Rizvan Kuniev

Unranked · 14-3-1 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C+ 66

Gorets · Russia

Alexander Volkov

69.1%

Rizvan Kuniev

30.9%

Model win probability · confidence 66%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Volkov 69 — the tape favors pocket striker

Alexander Volkov is the model side at 69.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Volkov 72 (B) vs Kuniev 66 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Volkov (B vs C+).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Volkov

    Volkov 72 (B) vs Kuniev 66 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Volkov (B vs C+).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Kuniev

    Kuniev 35 (D) vs Volkov 30 (D). Kuniev brings 1.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Volkov's 100% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Volkov

    Volkov 72 (B) vs Kuniev 67 (C+). When the shot comes, Volkov stuffs it at 100% — Kuniev is at 81%.

  4. 04

    Durability

    Volkov

    Volkov 89 (A) vs Kuniev 85 (A). Volkov has been finished by strikes 0 times; Kuniev 0.

Path · Volkov

Volkov wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Kuniev a long look at durability.

Path · Kuniev

Kuniev wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Volkov a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Volkov is built as: Pocket striker. Kuniev is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward Volkov — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Volkov 72 (B) vs Kuniev 66 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Volkov (B vs C+). Ground game: Kuniev 35 (D) vs Volkov 30 (D). Kuniev brings 1.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Volkov's 100% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Volkov 72 (B) vs Kuniev 67 (C+). When the shot comes, Volkov stuffs it at 100% — Kuniev is at 81%.

The finish path leans strikes (45% KO/TKO vs 10% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

VolkovTraitKuniev
72 B
IQ
66 C+
30 D
Ground
35 D
64 C+
Defense
65 C+
62 C+
Counter
59 C
67 C+
Reaction
64 C+
67 C+
Agility
65 C+
72 B
TD react
67 C+
89 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
45%
Submission
10%
Decision
45%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

28%

R2

14%

R3

13%

Dist

45%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    2.87 vs 0.72 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Volkov

  • Damage ratio

    1.94 vs 1.22 landed/absorbed

    Volkov

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 2/0 UFC rows

    Volkov

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.91 vs 3.94

    Volkov

  • Fight IQ

    B 72 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Volkov

  • Reach / length

    80.0" vs 76.0"

    Volkov

  • Ground game (tape)

    30 vs 35

    Kuniev

  • Takedown reaction

    100% vs 81% hips on the shot

    Volkov

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 63 vs 50

    Volkov

  • Striking efficiency

    63% vs 66%

    Kuniev

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Volkov

  • Age-adjusted curve

    37 vs 34

    Kuniev

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Volkov

  • Counter punching

    62 vs 59

    Volkov

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Volkov

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Volkov

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 90% vs 81%

    Volkov

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Kuniev

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 60%

    Volkov

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Kuniev

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Volkov

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Volkov

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Volkov

Tape

VolkovMetricKuniev
4.78SLpM3.94
3.28SApM3.22
64%Str Acc66%
58%Str Def60%
0.57TD Avg0.98
67%TD Acc75%
100%TD Def81%
0.23Sub Avg0.00
0.60KD/150.44
6'8"Reach6'4"
37Age34

Alexander Volkov

W

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

May 10, 2026
W

Tai Tuivasa

Submission · R2 4:37

Sep 10, 2023

Rizvan Kuniev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

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