OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Mandel Nallo 78% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr

Mandel Nallo
CanadaCanada

Mandel Nallo

“Mango”

Unranked · 14-4 · striker · Orthodox · 37 · IQ C+ 66

TriStar Gym · Canada

VS
Nate Landwehr
USAUSA

Nate Landwehr

“The Train”

Unranked · 18-8 · striker · Orthodox · 38 · IQ C 54

MMA Masters · USA

Mandel Nallo

78.1%

Nate Landwehr

21.9%

Model win probability · confidence 74%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Nallo 78 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Mandel Nallo is the model side at 78.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Landwehr (ground 37) into Nallo (TD reaction 61). Punching agility is the clearest separator: Nallo 73 (B) vs Landwehr 53 (C). Hand speed / output lean Nallo (8.3 SLpM at 58%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Nallo

    Nallo 73 (B) vs Landwehr 53 (C). Hand speed / output lean Nallo (8.3 SLpM at 58%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Landwehr

    Landwehr 37 (D) vs Nallo 19 (D). Landwehr brings 0.7 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Nallo's 85% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Nallo

    Nallo 66 (C+) vs Landwehr 54 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Nallo (C+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Durability

    Landwehr

    Landwehr 85 (A) vs Nallo 79 (B+). Landwehr has been finished by strikes 0 times; Nallo 0.

Path · Nallo

Nallo has to stuff the first takedown (61 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 70 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Landwehr

Landwehr has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Nallo defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Landwehr attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Nallo is built as: Volume pressure striker. Landwehr is built as: Volume pressure striker. Fight IQ delta is +12 toward Nallo — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Nallo 73 (B) vs Landwehr 53 (C). Hand speed / output lean Nallo (8.3 SLpM at 58%). Ground game: Landwehr 37 (D) vs Nallo 19 (D). Landwehr brings 0.7 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Nallo's 85% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Nallo 66 (C+) vs Landwehr 54 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Nallo (C+ vs C).

The finish path leans the mat (34% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Landwehr attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

NalloTraitLandwehr
66 C+
IQ
54 C
19 D
Ground
37 D
73 B
Defense
70 B
31 D
Counter
32 D
59 C
Reaction
58 C
73 B
Agility
53 C
61 C+
TD react
64 C+
79 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
26%
Submission
34%
Decision
40%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

17%

R3

19%

Dist

40%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Landwehr (ground 37) into Nallo (TD reaction 61).

  • Damage ratio

    4.83 vs 2.09 landed/absorbed

    Nallo

  • Striking differential

    6.55 vs 2.89 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Nallo

  • Output (SLpM)

    8.26 vs 5.55

    Nallo

  • Ground game (tape)

    19 vs 37

    Landwehr

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs C 54 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Nallo

  • Striking efficiency

    58% vs 48%

    Nallo

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Nallo

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Landwehr

  • Striking defense

    51% vs 57%

    Landwehr

  • Reach / length

    75.0" vs 72.0"

    Nallo

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Landwehr (ground 37) into Nallo (TD reaction 61).

    Landwehr

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Landwehr

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs B

    Nallo

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Landwehr

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Nallo

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Nallo

  • Counter punching

    31 vs 32

    Landwehr

  • Age-adjusted curve

    37 vs 38

    Nallo

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Nallo

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 82%

    Nallo

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Nallo

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Nallo

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Nallo

Tape

NalloMetricLandwehr
8.26SLpM5.55
1.71SApM2.66
58%Str Acc48%
51%Str Def57%
0.00TD Avg0.73
0%TD Acc42%
85%TD Def82%
0.00Sub Avg0.73
0.15KD/150.11
6'3"Reach6'0"
37Age38

Mandel Nallo

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Nate Landwehr

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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