OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 11, 2026 · Joel Faglier 63% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Joel Faglier / KO/TKO)

Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier

Javad Mahjoub
CanadaCanada

Javad Mahjoub

Unranked · 0-0 · hybrid · -- · 34 · IQ D 43

TriStar Gym · Canada

VS
Joel Faglier
USAUSA

Joel Faglier

“The Sniper”

Unranked · 6-0 · hybrid · -- · 25 · IQ B 72

Faglier's Mixed Martial Arts · USA

Javad Mahjoub

37.5%

Joel Faglier

62.5%

Model win probability · confidence 56%

Desk

37.5% / 62.5%

Market

45.0% / 55.0%

Moneyline

+116 / -130

Edge

−7.6% Faglier

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk leans off the market on Faglier. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Faglier 63 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Joel Faglier is the model side at 62.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Faglier 72 (B) vs Mahjoub 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Faglier (B vs D).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Faglier

    Faglier 72 (B) vs Mahjoub 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Faglier (B vs D).

  2. 02

    Durability

    Faglier

    Faglier 78 (B+) vs Mahjoub 65 (C+). Faglier has been finished by strikes 0 times; Mahjoub 0.

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Faglier

    Faglier 21 (D) vs Mahjoub 12 (D). Faglier brings 0.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Mahjoub's 85% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Faglier

    Faglier 59 (C) vs Mahjoub 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Faglier.

Path · Mahjoub

Mahjoub wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Faglier a long look at durability.

Path · Faglier

Faglier has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Mahjoub defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Faglier is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Mahjoub is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +29 toward Faglier — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Faglier 72 (B) vs Mahjoub 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Faglier (B vs D). Durability: Faglier 78 (B+) vs Mahjoub 65 (C+). Faglier has been finished by strikes 0 times; Mahjoub 0. Ground game: Faglier 21 (D) vs Mahjoub 12 (D). Faglier brings 0.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Mahjoub's 85% takedown defense.

The finish path leans strikes (31% KO/TKO vs 23% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MahjoubTraitFaglier
43 D
IQ
72 B
12 D
Ground
21 D
57 C
Defense
57 C
37 D
Counter
37 D
58 C
Reaction
59 C
38 D
Agility
39 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
65 C+
Chin
78 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
31%
Submission
23%
Decision
46%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

15%

R3

18%

Dist

46%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.7 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Fight IQ

    D 43 vs B 72 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Faglier

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Faglier

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 21

    Faglier

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Faglier

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 25

    Faglier

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 75.0"

    Faglier

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Faglier

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Faglier

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Mahjoub

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Mahjoub

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 0.00

    Mahjoub

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 0%

    Mahjoub

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 68%

    Mahjoub

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Mahjoub

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Mahjoub

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Mahjoub

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Mahjoub

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    Mahjoub

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Mahjoub

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Mahjoub

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Mahjoub

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Mahjoub

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 37

    Mahjoub

Tape

MahjoubMetricFaglier
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
—Reach—
34Age25

Javad Mahjoub

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Joel Faglier

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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