OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Gilbert Urbina 90% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Nick Galanti / Submission)

Julien LeBlanc vs Nick Galanti

Julien LeBlanc
CanadaCanada

Julien LeBlanc

Unranked · 10-3 · hybrid · Southpaw · 34 · IQ C+ 68

Patenaude Kung Fu · Canada

VS
NG
USAUSA

Nick Galanti

Unranked · 7-1 · hybrid · -- · 28 · IQ B 70

Dante Rivera BJJ · USA

Julien LeBlanc

61.2%

Nick Galanti

38.8%

Model win probability · confidence 62%

Desk

61.2% / 38.8%

Market

15.0% / 85.0%

Moneyline

+549 / -700

Edge

+46.3% LeBlanc

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on LeBlanc. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

LeBlanc 61 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Julien LeBlanc is the model side at 61.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Counter punching is the clearest separator: LeBlanc 51 (C) vs Galanti 37 (D). LeBlanc's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Galanti's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    LeBlanc

    LeBlanc 51 (C) vs Galanti 37 (D). LeBlanc's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Galanti's entries.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Galanti

    Galanti 69 (B) vs LeBlanc 59 (C). When the shot comes, Galanti stuffs it at 85% — LeBlanc is at 85%.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    LeBlanc

    LeBlanc 47 (D) vs Galanti 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean LeBlanc (1.7 SLpM at 67%).

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    LeBlanc

    LeBlanc 61 (C+) vs Galanti 57 (C). LeBlanc absorbs 4.01/min at 65% defense; Galanti is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · LeBlanc

Volume. LeBlanc wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Galanti a clean reset.

Path · Galanti

Galanti wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying LeBlanc a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. LeBlanc is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. Galanti is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -2 toward Galanti — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: LeBlanc 51 (C) vs Galanti 37 (D). LeBlanc's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Galanti's entries. Takedown reaction: Galanti 69 (B) vs LeBlanc 59 (C). When the shot comes, Galanti stuffs it at 85% — LeBlanc is at 85%. Punching agility: LeBlanc 47 (D) vs Galanti 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean LeBlanc (1.7 SLpM at 67%).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (53%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

LeBlancTraitGalanti
68 C+
IQ
70 B
19 D
Ground
21 D
61 C+
Defense
57 C
51 C
Counter
37 D
62 C+
Reaction
59 C
47 D
Agility
39 D
59 C
TD react
69 B
81 B+
Chin
78 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
25%
Submission
22%
Decision
53%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

53%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.3 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking efficiency

    67% vs 22%

    LeBlanc

  • Striking differential

    -2.32 vs -3.80 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    LeBlanc

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/6 UFC rows

    Galanti

  • Damage ratio

    0.42 vs 0.14 landed/absorbed

    LeBlanc

  • Counter punching

    51 vs 37

    LeBlanc

  • Output (SLpM)

    1.69 vs 0.60

    LeBlanc

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Galanti

  • Striking defense

    65% vs 70%

    Galanti

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Galanti

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    LeBlanc

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 68 vs B 70 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Galanti

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    LeBlanc

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 28

    Galanti

  • Ground game (tape)

    19 vs 21

    Galanti

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    LeBlanc

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    LeBlanc

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    LeBlanc

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Galanti

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 49

    LeBlanc

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    LeBlanc

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 87%

    LeBlanc

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 74.0"

    LeBlanc

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    LeBlanc

Tape

LeBlancMetricGalanti
1.69SLpM0.00
4.01SApM4.60
67%Str Acc0%
65%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
6'2"Reach—
34Age28

Julien LeBlanc

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Nick Galanti

W

Fighter 5365551

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Mar 27, 2026
W

Fighter 5365550

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 1:11

Dec 20, 2025
W

Fighter 4697154

KO/TKO · R3 4:03

Aug 30, 2025
W

Fighter 3016619

Submission (Guillotine) · R1 1:59

May 24, 2025
W

Fighter 5125276

Submission (Guillotine) · R2 4:47

Feb 1, 2025
L

Brandon Holmes

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Aug 16, 2024

Your pick

Desk briefing

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