OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Marc-Andre Barriault 54% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus

Marc-Andre Barriault
CanadaCanada

Marc-Andre Barriault

“Powerbar”

Unranked · 17-11 · striker · Orthodox · 36 · IQ C 51

Kill Cliff FC · Canada

VS
Kyle Daukaus
USAUSA

Kyle Daukaus

“The D'Arce Knight”

Unranked · 16-5 · grappler · Southpaw · 33 · IQ C+ 67

Martinez BJJ · USA

Marc-Andre Barriault

54.0%

Kyle Daukaus

46.0%

Model win probability · confidence 47%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Barriault 54 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Marc-Andre Barriault is the model side at 54.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Daukaus (ground 63) into Barriault (TD reaction 66). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Daukaus 63 (C+) vs Barriault 21 (D). Daukaus brings 2.0 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Barriault's 84% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Daukaus

    Daukaus 63 (C+) vs Barriault 21 (D). Daukaus brings 2.0 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Barriault's 84% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Daukaus

    Daukaus 54 (C) vs Barriault 36 (D). Daukaus's return is the live one (0.12 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Barriault's entries.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Daukaus

    Daukaus 67 (C+) vs Barriault 51 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Daukaus (C+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Durability

    Barriault

    Barriault 85 (A) vs Daukaus 72 (B). Barriault has been finished by strikes 0 times; Daukaus 0.

Path · Barriault

Barriault has to stuff the first takedown (66 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Daukaus

Daukaus has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Barriault defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Barriault is built as: Volume pressure striker. Daukaus is built as: Submission hunter — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is -16 toward Daukaus — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Daukaus 63 (C+) vs Barriault 21 (D). Daukaus brings 2.0 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Barriault's 84% takedown defense. Counter punching: Daukaus 54 (C) vs Barriault 36 (D). Daukaus's return is the live one (0.12 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Barriault's entries. Fight IQ: Daukaus 67 (C+) vs Barriault 51 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Daukaus (C+ vs C).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (50%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BarriaultTraitDaukaus
51 C
IQ
67 C+
21 D
Ground
63 C+
70 B
Defense
63 C+
36 D
Counter
54 C
61 C+
Reaction
62 C+
60 C+
Agility
55 C
66 C+
TD react
66 C+
85 A
Chin
72 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
31%
Submission
19%
Decision
50%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

14%

R3

16%

Dist

50%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.9 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Daukaus (ground 63) into Barriault (TD reaction 66). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    3.03 vs -0.33 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Barriault

  • Damage ratio

    2.16 vs 0.91 landed/absorbed

    Barriault

  • Ground game (tape)

    21 vs 63

    Daukaus

  • Fight IQ

    C 51 vs C+ 67 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Daukaus

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Daukaus

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.65 vs 3.16

    Barriault

  • Striking efficiency

    50% vs 65%

    Daukaus

  • Counter punching

    36 vs 54

    Daukaus

  • Striking defense

    57% vs 62%

    Daukaus

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Barriault

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Barriault

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Daukaus

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 76.0"

    Daukaus

  • Age-adjusted curve

    36 vs 33

    Daukaus

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Daukaus (ground 63) into Barriault (TD reaction 66). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Daukaus

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Barriault

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Barriault

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 84% vs 77%

    Barriault

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Daukaus

  • Takedown reaction

    84% vs 77% hips on the shot

    Daukaus

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Barriault

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Barriault

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Barriault

Tape

BarriaultMetricDaukaus
5.65SLpM3.16
2.62SApM3.49
50%Str Acc65%
57%Str Def62%
0.34TD Avg1.97
29%TD Acc26%
84%TD Def77%
0.09Sub Avg1.97
0.29KD/150.12
6'2"Reach6'4"
36Age33

Marc-Andre Barriault

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Kyle Daukaus

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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