OctagonEdge

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Donte Johnson 63% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored hit (Donte Johnson / KO/TKO)

Donte Johnson vs Eric McConico

Donte Johnson
USAUSA

Donte Johnson

“Lockjaw”

Unranked · 9-0 · hybrid · Southpaw · 27 · IQ B 72

Gnosis Combat Sports · USA

VS
Eric McConico
USAUSA

Eric McConico

Unranked · 11-5-1 · striker · Southpaw · 36 · IQ C+ 63

MMA LAB · USA

Donte Johnson

63.2%

Eric McConico

36.8%

Model win probability · confidence 57%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Johnson 63 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Donte Johnson is the model side at 63.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Johnson (ground 53) into McConico (TD reaction 68). Ground game is the clearest separator: Johnson 53 (C) vs McConico 34 (D). Johnson brings 2.0 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into McConico's 82% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Johnson

    Johnson 53 (C) vs McConico 34 (D). Johnson brings 2.0 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into McConico's 82% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Johnson

    Johnson 60 (C+) vs McConico 45 (D). Hand speed / output lean Johnson (3.1 SLpM at 60%).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Johnson

    Johnson 58 (C) vs McConico 47 (D). Johnson's return is the live one (0.62 KD/15, 0 KOs) against McConico's entries.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Johnson

    Johnson 68 (C+) vs McConico 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Johnson.

Path · Johnson

Johnson has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make McConico defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · McConico

McConico has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Johnson is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. McConico is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +9 toward Johnson — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Johnson 53 (C) vs McConico 34 (D). Johnson brings 2.0 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into McConico's 82% takedown defense. Punching agility: Johnson 60 (C+) vs McConico 45 (D). Hand speed / output lean Johnson (3.1 SLpM at 60%). Counter punching: Johnson 58 (C) vs McConico 47 (D). Johnson's return is the live one (0.62 KD/15, 0 KOs) against McConico's entries.

The finish path leans strikes (40% KO/TKO vs 21% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

JohnsonTraitMcConico
72 B
IQ
63 C+
53 C
Ground
34 D
63 C+
Defense
63 C+
58 C
Counter
47 D
68 C+
Reaction
58 C
60 C+
Agility
45 D
66 C+
TD react
68 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
40%
Submission
21%
Decision
39%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

27%

R2

17%

R3

18%

Dist

39%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.9 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Johnson (ground 53) into McConico (TD reaction 68).

  • Ground game (tape)

    53 vs 34

    Johnson

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Johnson

  • Fight IQ

    B 72 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Johnson

  • Counter punching

    58 vs 47

    Johnson

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Johnson

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Johnson

  • Striking differential

    -0.40 vs -0.66 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Johnson

  • Age-adjusted curve

    27 vs 36

    Johnson

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 77.0"

    McConico

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Johnson

  • Striking efficiency

    60% vs 57%

    Johnson

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Johnson (ground 53) into McConico (TD reaction 68).

    Johnson

  • Damage ratio

    0.89 vs 0.82 landed/absorbed

    Johnson

  • Takedown reaction

    77% vs 82% hips on the shot

    McConico

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.11 vs 2.92

    Johnson

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 77% vs 82%

    McConico

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 62%

    McConico

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Johnson

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Johnson

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Johnson

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Johnson

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Johnson

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Johnson

Tape

JohnsonMetricMcConico
3.11SLpM2.92
3.51SApM3.58
60%Str Acc57%
62%Str Def62%
2.00TD Avg0.64
100%TD Acc100%
77%TD Def82%
0.67Sub Avg0.00
0.62KD/150.10
6'2"Reach6'5"
27Age36

Donte Johnson

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Eric McConico

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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