OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 69% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani / Decision - Unanimous)

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
USAUSA

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

“Mufasa”

Unranked · 11-2 · grappler · Switch · 27 · IQ B 73

Cobra Team MMA · USA

VS
Seokhyeon Ko
South KoreaSouth Korea

Seokhyeon Ko

“The Korean Tyson”

Unranked · 13-3 · hybrid · Southpaw · 32 · IQ B 71

HAVAS Seoul · South Korea

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

68.5%

Seokhyeon Ko

31.5%

Model win probability · confidence 63%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Lebosnoyani 69 — the tape favors submission hunter

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani is the model side at 68.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. grappler meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Lebosnoyani 68 (B) vs Ko 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Lebosnoyani (4.8 SLpM at 63%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Lebosnoyani

    Lebosnoyani 68 (B) vs Ko 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Lebosnoyani (4.8 SLpM at 63%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Lebosnoyani

    Lebosnoyani 70 (B) vs Ko 63 (C+). Lebosnoyani brings 2.8 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Ko's 69% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Durability

    Ko

    Ko 85 (A) vs Lebosnoyani 79 (B+). Ko has been finished by strikes 0 times; Lebosnoyani 0.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Lebosnoyani

    Lebosnoyani 67 (C+) vs Ko 63 (C+). Lebosnoyani absorbs 2.93/min at 58% defense; Ko is a softer target at 3.64 SApM.

Path · Lebosnoyani

Volume. Lebosnoyani wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Ko a clean reset.

Path · Ko

Ko wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Lebosnoyani a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Lebosnoyani is built as: Submission hunter. Ko is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +2 toward Lebosnoyani — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Lebosnoyani 68 (B) vs Ko 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Lebosnoyani (4.8 SLpM at 63%). Ground game: Lebosnoyani 70 (B) vs Ko 63 (C+). Lebosnoyani brings 2.8 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Ko's 69% takedown defense. Durability: Ko 85 (A) vs Lebosnoyani 79 (B+). Ko has been finished by strikes 0 times; Lebosnoyani 0.

The finish path leans the mat (33% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

LebosnoyaniTraitKo
73 B
IQ
71 B
70 B
Ground
63 C+
67 C+
Defense
63 C+
50 C
Counter
55 C
61 C+
Reaction
58 C
68 B
Agility
54 C
65 C+
TD react
63 C+
79 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
28%
Submission
33%
Decision
39%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

25%

R2

17%

R3

19%

Dist

39%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.1 minutes.

Style matchup

grappler meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    1.84 vs -0.91 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Lebosnoyani

  • Damage ratio

    1.63 vs 0.75 landed/absorbed

    Lebosnoyani

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.77 vs 2.73

    Lebosnoyani

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Lebosnoyani

  • Ground game (tape)

    70 vs 63

    Lebosnoyani

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 63%

    Ko

  • Striking efficiency

    63% vs 68%

    Ko

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Lebosnoyani

  • Counter punching

    50 vs 55

    Ko

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Ko

  • Fight IQ

    B 73 vs B 71 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Lebosnoyani

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Lebosnoyani

  • Age-adjusted curve

    27 vs 32

    Lebosnoyani

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 71.0"

    Lebosnoyani

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Lebosnoyani

  • Takedown reaction

    74% vs 69% hips on the shot

    Lebosnoyani

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Lebosnoyani

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Lebosnoyani

  • Style interaction

    grappler meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Lebosnoyani

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 74% vs 69%

    Lebosnoyani

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Lebosnoyani

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Lebosnoyani

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Lebosnoyani

Tape

LebosnoyaniMetricKo
4.77SLpM2.73
2.93SApM3.64
63%Str Acc68%
58%Str Def63%
2.79TD Avg4.00
30%TD Acc63%
74%TD Def69%
1.86Sub Avg0.33
0.22KD/150.10
6'0"Reach5'11"
27Age32

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Seokhyeon Ko

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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