OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Lightweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Quillan Salkilld 67% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Quillan Salkilld / Submission)

Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld

Mateusz Gamrot
PolandPoland

Mateusz Gamrot

“Gamer”

Unranked · 26-5 · wrestler · Southpaw · 35 · IQ C+ 67

American Top Team · Poland

VS
Quillan Salkilld
AustraliaAustralia

Quillan Salkilld

Unranked · 13-1 · wrestler · Orthodox · 26 · IQ C+ 62

Luistro Combat Academy · Australia

Mateusz Gamrot

32.8%

Quillan Salkilld

67.2%

Model win probability · confidence 62%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Salkilld 67 — the tape favors chain-wrestling grappler

Quillan Salkilld is the model side at 67.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Wrestler vs wrestler. Expect a grinding, decision-heavy fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Salkilld 71 (B) vs Gamrot 51 (C). Hand speed / output lean Salkilld (4.7 SLpM at 61%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Salkilld

    Salkilld 71 (B) vs Gamrot 51 (C). Hand speed / output lean Salkilld (4.7 SLpM at 61%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Salkilld

    Salkilld 83 (B+) vs Gamrot 71 (B). Salkilld brings 6.9 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Gamrot's 65% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Gamrot

    Gamrot 50 (D) vs Salkilld 41 (D). When the shot comes, Gamrot stuffs it at 65% — Salkilld is at 58%.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Gamrot

    Gamrot 67 (C+) vs Salkilld 62 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Gamrot (C+ vs C+).

Path · Gamrot

Gamrot has to stuff the first takedown (50 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Salkilld

Salkilld has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Gamrot defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Respect the wrestle-up: Salkilld's hips are the live vulnerability and Gamrot has the ground grade to hunt them.

Full read

Style and location. Clinches and chain wrestling. Minutes accumulate on the mat more than in space. Salkilld is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler — suspect hips against the shot. Gamrot is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Fight IQ delta is -5 toward Gamrot — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Salkilld 71 (B) vs Gamrot 51 (C). Hand speed / output lean Salkilld (4.7 SLpM at 61%). Ground game: Salkilld 83 (B+) vs Gamrot 71 (B). Salkilld brings 6.9 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Gamrot's 65% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Gamrot 50 (D) vs Salkilld 41 (D). When the shot comes, Gamrot stuffs it at 65% — Salkilld is at 58%.

The finish path leans strikes (30% KO/TKO vs 27% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. Respect the wrestle-up: Salkilld's hips are the live vulnerability and Gamrot has the ground grade to hunt them. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

GamrotTraitSalkilld
67 C+
IQ
62 C+
71 B
Ground
83 B+
63 C+
Defense
67 C+
52 C
Counter
54 C
55 C
Reaction
59 C
51 C
Agility
71 B
50 D
TD react
41 D
85 A
Chin
81 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
30%
Submission
27%
Decision
44%

Clinches and chain wrestling. Minutes accumulate on the mat more than in space.

Duration

R1

25%

R2

15%

R3

11%

R4

2%

R5

2%

Dist

44%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 15 minutes.

Style matchup

Wrestler vs wrestler. Expect a grinding, decision-heavy fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -0.36 vs 1.79 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Salkilld

  • Damage ratio

    0.90 vs 1.61 landed/absorbed

    Salkilld

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.14 vs 4.73

    Salkilld

  • Ground game (tape)

    71 vs 83

    Salkilld

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Salkilld

  • Takedown reaction

    65% vs 58% hips on the shot

    Gamrot

  • Reach / length

    70.5" vs 75.0"

    Salkilld

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 67 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Gamrot

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Salkilld

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 59%

    Gamrot

  • Age-adjusted curve

    35 vs 26

    Salkilld

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Salkilld

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Salkilld

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Salkilld

  • Counter punching

    52 vs 54

    Salkilld

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Gamrot

  • Striking efficiency

    59% vs 61%

    Salkilld

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Salkilld

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 65% vs 58%

    Gamrot

  • Style interaction

    Wrestler vs wrestler. Expect a grinding, decision-heavy fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Gamrot

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Gamrot

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Gamrot

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Gamrot

Tape

GamrotMetricSalkilld
3.14SLpM4.73
3.50SApM2.94
59%Str Acc61%
62%Str Def59%
5.08TD Avg6.86
38%TD Acc36%
65%TD Def58%
0.38Sub Avg1.03
0.26KD/150.60
5'11"Reach6'3"
35Age26

Mateusz Gamrot

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Quillan Salkilld

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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