OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Chase Hooper 74% · Submission · Round 1 · scored hit (Chase Hooper / Submission)

Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez

Chase Hooper
USAUSA

Chase Hooper

“The Dream”

Unranked · 17-5-1 · grappler · Southpaw · 26 · IQ C+ 66

Combat Sport and Fitness · USA

VS
Mitch Ramirez
USAUSA

Mitch Ramirez

Unranked · 8-4 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C 58

Syndicate MMA · USA

Chase Hooper

73.9%

Mitch Ramirez

26.1%

Model win probability · confidence 70%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Hooper 74 — the tape favors submission hunter

Chase Hooper is the model side at 73.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Hooper (ground 69) into Ramirez (TD reaction 60). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Hooper 69 (B) vs Ramirez 26 (D). Hooper brings 2.4 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Ramirez's 83% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Hooper

    Hooper 69 (B) vs Ramirez 26 (D). Hooper brings 2.4 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Ramirez's 83% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Hooper

    Hooper 63 (C+) vs Ramirez 46 (D). Hand speed / output lean Hooper (4.5 SLpM at 59%).

  3. 03

    Durability

    Ramirez

    Ramirez 85 (A) vs Hooper 77 (B+). Ramirez has been finished by strikes 0 times; Hooper 0.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Hooper

    Hooper 66 (C+) vs Ramirez 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Hooper (C+ vs C).

Path · Hooper

Hooper has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Ramirez defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Ramirez

Ramirez has to stuff the first takedown (60 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Ramirez attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Hooper is built as: Submission hunter — southpaw. Ramirez is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +8 toward Hooper — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Hooper 69 (B) vs Ramirez 26 (D). Hooper brings 2.4 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Ramirez's 83% takedown defense. Punching agility: Hooper 63 (C+) vs Ramirez 46 (D). Hand speed / output lean Hooper (4.5 SLpM at 59%). Durability: Ramirez 85 (A) vs Hooper 77 (B+). Ramirez has been finished by strikes 0 times; Hooper 0.

The finish path leans the mat (46% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Ramirez attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

HooperTraitRamirez
66 C+
IQ
58 C
69 B
Ground
26 D
67 C+
Defense
64 C+
49 D
Counter
41 D
62 C+
Reaction
64 C+
63 C+
Agility
46 D
65 C+
TD react
60 C+
77 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
28%
Submission
46%
Decision
25%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

30%

R2

21%

R3

24%

Dist

25%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 9 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Hooper (ground 69) into Ramirez (TD reaction 60). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    69 vs 26

    Hooper

  • Striking differential

    1.48 vs 0.14 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Hooper

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Hooper

  • Damage ratio

    1.49 vs 1.04 landed/absorbed

    Hooper

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs C 58 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Hooper

  • Striking efficiency

    59% vs 49%

    Hooper

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Hooper

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.50 vs 3.51

    Hooper

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 70.5"

    Hooper

  • Counter punching

    49 vs 41

    Hooper

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Hooper (ground 69) into Ramirez (TD reaction 60). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Hooper

  • Takedown reaction

    75% vs 83% hips on the shot

    Hooper

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Ramirez

  • Age-adjusted curve

    26 vs 33

    Hooper

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 61%

    Ramirez

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Hooper

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Hooper

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 75% vs 83%

    Ramirez

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Ramirez

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Hooper

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Hooper

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Hooper

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Hooper

Tape

HooperMetricRamirez
4.50SLpM3.51
3.02SApM3.37
59%Str Acc49%
59%Str Def61%
2.43TD Avg0.59
32%TD Acc33%
75%TD Def83%
2.08Sub Avg0.00
0.24KD/150.10
6'2"Reach5'11"
26Age33

Chase Hooper

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Mitch Ramirez

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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