OctagonEdge

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Bo Nickal 63% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · scored hit (Bo Nickal / KO/TKO)

Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus

Bo Nickal
USAUSA

Bo Nickal

Unranked · 9-1 · hybrid · Southpaw · 30 · IQ B+ 80

American Top Team · USA

VS
Kyle Daukaus
USAUSA

Kyle Daukaus

“The D'Arce Knight”

Unranked · 16-5 · grappler · Southpaw · 33 · IQ C+ 67

Martinez BJJ · USA

Bo Nickal

63.4%

Kyle Daukaus

36.6%

Model win probability · confidence 57%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Nickal 63 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Bo Nickal is the model side at 63.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Nickal (ground 80) into Daukaus (TD reaction 66). Ground game is the clearest separator: Nickal 80 (B+) vs Daukaus 63 (C+). Nickal brings 3.1 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Daukaus's 77% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Nickal

    Nickal 80 (B+) vs Daukaus 63 (C+). Nickal brings 3.1 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Daukaus's 77% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Nickal

    Nickal 69 (B) vs Daukaus 54 (C). Nickal's return is the live one (0.84 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Daukaus's entries.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Nickal

    Nickal 70 (B) vs Daukaus 55 (C). Hand speed / output lean Nickal (3.4 SLpM at 68%).

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Nickal

    Nickal 80 (B+) vs Daukaus 67 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Nickal (B+ vs C+).

Path · Nickal

Nickal has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Daukaus defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Daukaus

Daukaus has to stuff the first takedown (66 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Nickal is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. Daukaus is built as: Submission hunter — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +13 toward Nickal — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Nickal 80 (B+) vs Daukaus 63 (C+). Nickal brings 3.1 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Daukaus's 77% takedown defense. Counter punching: Nickal 69 (B) vs Daukaus 54 (C). Nickal's return is the live one (0.84 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Daukaus's entries. Punching agility: Nickal 70 (B) vs Daukaus 55 (C). Hand speed / output lean Nickal (3.4 SLpM at 68%).

The finish path leans strikes (48% KO/TKO vs 40% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

NickalTraitDaukaus
80 B+
IQ
67 C+
80 B+
Ground
63 C+
64 C+
Defense
63 C+
69 B
Counter
54 C
68 B
Reaction
62 C+
70 B
Agility
55 C
64 C+
TD react
66 C+
79 B+
Chin
72 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
48%
Submission
40%
Decision
12%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

41%

R2

24%

R3

24%

Dist

12%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 7.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Nickal (ground 80) into Daukaus (TD reaction 66).

  • Ground game (tape)

    80 vs 63

    Nickal

  • Fight IQ

    B+ 80 vs C+ 67 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Nickal

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Nickal

  • Counter punching

    69 vs 54

    Nickal

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Nickal

  • Striking differential

    -0.06 vs -0.33 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Nickal

  • Striking efficiency

    68% vs 65%

    Nickal

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Nickal

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Nickal (ground 80) into Daukaus (TD reaction 66).

    Nickal

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Nickal

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Nickal

  • Damage ratio

    0.98 vs 0.91 landed/absorbed

    Nickal

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.36 vs 3.16

    Nickal

  • Takedown reaction

    73% vs 77% hips on the shot

    Daukaus

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 33

    Nickal

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 62%

    Daukaus

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 73% vs 77%

    Daukaus

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Nickal

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Nickal

  • Reach / length

    76.0" vs 76.0"

    Nickal

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Nickal

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Nickal

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Nickal

Tape

NickalMetricDaukaus
3.36SLpM3.16
3.42SApM3.49
68%Str Acc65%
61%Str Def62%
3.12TD Avg1.97
58%TD Acc26%
73%TD Def77%
2.27Sub Avg1.97
0.84KD/150.12
6'4"Reach6'4"
30Age33

Bo Nickal

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Kyle Daukaus

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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