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UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 3, 2026 · Seokhyeon Ko 55% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Seokhyeon Ko vs Wellington Turman

Seokhyeon Ko
South KoreaSouth Korea

Seokhyeon Ko

“The Korean Tyson”

Unranked · 13-3 · hybrid · Southpaw · 32 · IQ B 71

HAVAS Seoul · South Korea

VS
Wellington Turman
BrazilBrazil

Wellington Turman

“The Prodigy”

Unranked · 18-8 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 64

Teixeira MMA & Fitness · Brazil

Seokhyeon Ko

55.0%

Wellington Turman

45.0%

Model win probability · confidence 48%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Ko 55 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Seokhyeon Ko is the model side at 55.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Ko (ground 63) into Turman (TD reaction 63). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Ko 63 (C+) vs Turman 46 (D). Ko brings 4.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Turman's 79% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Ko

    Ko 63 (C+) vs Turman 46 (D). Ko brings 4.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Turman's 79% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Ko

    Ko 55 (C) vs Turman 48 (D). Ko's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Turman's entries.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Ko

    Ko 71 (B) vs Turman 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Ko (B vs C+).

  4. 04

    Durability

    Ko

    Ko 85 (A) vs Turman 79 (B+). Ko has been finished by strikes 0 times; Turman 0.

Path · Ko

Ko has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Turman defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Turman

Turman has to stuff the first takedown (63 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Ko is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. Turman is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +7 toward Ko — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Ko 63 (C+) vs Turman 46 (D). Ko brings 4.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Turman's 79% takedown defense. Counter punching: Ko 55 (C) vs Turman 48 (D). Ko's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Turman's entries. Fight IQ: Ko 71 (B) vs Turman 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Ko (B vs C+).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (56%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

KoTraitTurman
71 B
IQ
64 C+
63 C+
Ground
46 D
63 C+
Defense
63 C+
55 C
Counter
48 D
58 C
Reaction
62 C+
54 C
Agility
53 C
63 C+
TD react
63 C+
85 A
Chin
79 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
22%
Submission
22%
Decision
56%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

17%

R2

12%

R3

14%

Dist

56%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Ko (ground 63) into Turman (TD reaction 63). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    63 vs 46

    Ko

  • Striking differential

    -0.91 vs -0.24 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Turman

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Ko

  • Striking efficiency

    68% vs 58%

    Ko

  • Fight IQ

    B 71 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Ko

  • Damage ratio

    0.75 vs 0.93 landed/absorbed

    Turman

  • Counter punching

    55 vs 48

    Ko

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Ko (ground 63) into Turman (TD reaction 63). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Ko

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.73 vs 3.23

    Turman

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Ko

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Ko

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Turman

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 72.0"

    Turman

  • Striking defense

    63% vs 62%

    Ko

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 69% vs 79%

    Turman

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Ko

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Turman

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 30

    Turman

  • Takedown reaction

    69% vs 79% hips on the shot

    Ko

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Turman

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Ko

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Ko

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Ko

Tape

KoMetricTurman
2.73SLpM3.23
3.64SApM3.47
68%Str Acc58%
63%Str Def62%
4.00TD Avg1.55
63%TD Acc21%
69%TD Def79%
0.33Sub Avg0.78
0.10KD/150.10
5'11"Reach6'0"
32Age30

Seokhyeon Ko

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Wellington Turman

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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