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UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 3, 2026 · Billy Elekana 51% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando

Billy Elekana
USAUSA

Billy Elekana

“Son of Susie”

Unranked · 10-2 · striker · Southpaw · 31 · IQ C+ 65

Uprising MMA · USA

VS
Lucas Fernando
BrazilBrazil

Lucas Fernando

Unranked · 14-3 · hybrid · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C+ 67

Rizzo RVT · Brazil

Billy Elekana

50.6%

Lucas Fernando

49.4%

Model win probability · confidence 43%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Elekana 51 — the tape favors pocket striker

Billy Elekana is the model side at 50.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Fernando (ground 58) into Elekana (TD reaction 54). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Fernando 58 (C) vs Elekana 38 (D). Fernando brings 3.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Elekana's 82% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Fernando

    Fernando 58 (C) vs Elekana 38 (D). Fernando brings 3.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Elekana's 82% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Fernando

    Fernando 65 (C+) vs Elekana 54 (C). When the shot comes, Fernando stuffs it at 73% — Elekana is at 82%.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Elekana

    Elekana 50 (C) vs Fernando 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Elekana (2.7 SLpM at 59%).

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Elekana

    Elekana 48 (D) vs Fernando 43 (D). Elekana's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Fernando's entries.

Path · Elekana

Elekana has to stuff the first takedown (54 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Fernando

Fernando has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Elekana defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Elekana is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Fernando is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -3 toward Fernando — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Fernando 58 (C) vs Elekana 38 (D). Fernando brings 3.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Elekana's 82% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Fernando 65 (C+) vs Elekana 54 (C). When the shot comes, Fernando stuffs it at 73% — Elekana is at 82%. Punching agility: Elekana 50 (C) vs Fernando 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Elekana (2.7 SLpM at 59%).

The finish path leans the mat (28% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ElekanaTraitFernando
65 C+
IQ
67 C+
38 D
Ground
58 C
62 C+
Defense
61 C+
48 D
Counter
43 D
64 C+
Reaction
61 C+
50 C
Agility
43 D
54 C
TD react
65 C+
84 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
27%
Submission
28%
Decision
45%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

15%

R3

18%

Dist

45%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Fernando (ground 58) into Elekana (TD reaction 54). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -0.94 vs -2.08 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Elekana

  • Ground game (tape)

    38 vs 58

    Fernando

  • Damage ratio

    0.74 vs 0.47 landed/absorbed

    Elekana

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 73% hips on the shot

    Fernando

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Fernando

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.71 vs 1.87

    Elekana

  • Reach / length

    77.5" vs 80.5"

    Fernando

  • Striking efficiency

    59% vs 55%

    Elekana

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Fernando (ground 58) into Elekana (TD reaction 54). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Fernando

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Elekana

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 65 vs C+ 67 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Fernando

  • Counter punching

    48 vs 43

    Elekana

  • Striking defense

    63% vs 64%

    Fernando

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Elekana

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 29

    Fernando

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 73%

    Elekana

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Elekana

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Fernando

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Elekana

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Elekana

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Elekana

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Elekana

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Elekana

Tape

ElekanaMetricFernando
2.71SLpM1.87
3.65SApM3.95
59%Str Acc55%
63%Str Def64%
0.85TD Avg3.00
22%TD Acc30%
82%TD Def73%
0.85Sub Avg1.00
0.10KD/150.16
6'6"Reach6'9"
31Age29

Billy Elekana

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Lucas Fernando

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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