UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Welterweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 91% · Submission · Distance · waiting on the result
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov
USAJean-Paul Lebosnoyani
“Mufasa”
Unranked · 11-2 · grappler · Switch · 27 · IQ B 73
Cobra Team MMA · USA
AzerbaijanFarman Hasanov
Unranked · 6-0 · hybrid · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C+ 68
American Top Team · Azerbaijan
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
91.0%
Farman Hasanov
9.0%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Lebosnoyani 91 — the tape favors submission hunter
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Lebosnoyani (ground 70) into Hasanov (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Lebosnoyani 70 (B) vs Hasanov 12 (D). Lebosnoyani brings 2.8 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Hasanov's 85% takedown defense.
- 01
Ground game
LebosnoyaniLebosnoyani 70 (B) vs Hasanov 12 (D). Lebosnoyani brings 2.8 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Hasanov's 85% takedown defense.
- 02
Punching agility
LebosnoyaniLebosnoyani 68 (B) vs Hasanov 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Lebosnoyani (4.8 SLpM at 63%).
- 03
Counter punching
LebosnoyaniLebosnoyani 50 (C) vs Hasanov 37 (D). Lebosnoyani's return is the live one (0.22 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Hasanov's entries.
- 04
Striking defense
LebosnoyaniLebosnoyani 67 (C+) vs Hasanov 57 (C). Lebosnoyani absorbs 2.93/min at 58% defense; Hasanov is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.
Path · Lebosnoyani
Lebosnoyani has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Hasanov defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.
Path · Hasanov
Hasanov has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Hasanov attacking counter punching with durability.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Lebosnoyani is built as: Submission hunter. Hasanov is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward Lebosnoyani — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Ground game: Lebosnoyani 70 (B) vs Hasanov 12 (D). Lebosnoyani brings 2.8 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Hasanov's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: Lebosnoyani 68 (B) vs Hasanov 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Lebosnoyani (4.8 SLpM at 63%). Counter punching: Lebosnoyani 50 (C) vs Hasanov 37 (D). Lebosnoyani's return is the live one (0.22 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Hasanov's entries.
The finish path leans the mat (39% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Hasanov attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
27%
R2
18%
R3
21%
Dist
34%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.7 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Lebosnoyani (ground 70) into Hasanov (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
1.84 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
LebosnoyaniStriking efficiency
63% vs 0%
LebosnoyaniGround game (tape)
70 vs 12
LebosnoyaniDamage ratio
1.63 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed
LebosnoyaniOutput (SLpM)
4.77 vs 0.00
LebosnoyaniGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
LebosnoyaniPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
LebosnoyaniStriking defense
58% vs 68%
HasanovCounter punching
50 vs 37
LebosnoyaniFight IQ
B 73 vs C+ 68 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
LebosnoyaniPocket defense (tape)
C+ vs C
LebosnoyaniReach / length
72.0" vs 74.5"
HasanovRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows
HasanovStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Lebosnoyani (ground 70) into Hasanov (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
LebosnoyaniTakedown reaction
74% vs 85% hips on the shot
HasanovCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
LebosnoyaniDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
HasanovAge-adjusted curve
27 vs 31
LebosnoyaniTakedown mismatch
TD def 74% vs 85%
HasanovTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
LebosnoyaniStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 50 vs 50
LebosnoyaniLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
LebosnoyaniChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Lebosnoyani
Tape
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Farman Hasanov
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
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