OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 1, 2026 · Alessandro Costa 65% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Amir Albazi vs Alessandro Costa

Amir Albazi
IraqIraq

Amir Albazi

“The Prince”

Unranked · 17-3 · hybrid · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C+ 64

Fight Ready · Iraq

VS
Alessandro Costa
BrazilBrazil

Alessandro Costa

“Nono”

Unranked · 17-5 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 66

Brazilian Warriors BJJ · Brazil

Amir Albazi

34.9%

Alessandro Costa

65.1%

Model win probability · confidence 59%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Costa 65 — the tape favors pocket striker

Alessandro Costa is the model side at 65.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Costa 57 (C) vs Albazi 34 (D). Hand speed / output lean Costa (3.9 SLpM at 51%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Costa

    Costa 57 (C) vs Albazi 34 (D). Hand speed / output lean Costa (3.9 SLpM at 51%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Costa

    Costa 49 (D) vs Albazi 32 (D). Costa's return is the live one (0.51 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Albazi's entries.

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Albazi

    Albazi 40 (D) vs Costa 34 (D). Albazi brings 1.2 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Costa's 82% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Costa

    Costa 68 (B) vs Albazi 64 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Costa.

Path · Albazi

Albazi wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Costa a long look at durability.

Path · Costa

Volume. Costa wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Albazi a clean reset.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Costa is built as: Pocket striker. Albazi is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +2 toward Costa — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Costa 57 (C) vs Albazi 34 (D). Hand speed / output lean Costa (3.9 SLpM at 51%). Counter punching: Costa 49 (D) vs Albazi 32 (D). Costa's return is the live one (0.51 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Albazi's entries. Ground game: Albazi 40 (D) vs Costa 34 (D). Albazi brings 1.2 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Costa's 82% takedown defense.

The finish path leans strikes (33% KO/TKO vs 29% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AlbaziTraitCosta
64 C+
IQ
66 C+
40 D
Ground
34 D
62 C+
Defense
65 C+
32 D
Counter
49 D
64 C+
Reaction
68 B
34 D
Agility
57 C
67 C+
TD react
68 C+
77 B+
Chin
80 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
33%
Submission
29%
Decision
38%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

27%

R2

17%

R3

18%

Dist

38%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.9 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker.

  • Striking differential

    -1.27 vs 0.61 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Costa

  • Damage ratio

    0.66 vs 1.19 landed/absorbed

    Costa

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Costa

  • Counter punching

    32 vs 49

    Costa

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.47 vs 3.86

    Costa

  • Striking efficiency

    41% vs 51%

    Costa

  • Ground game (tape)

    40 vs 34

    Albazi

  • Striking defense

    63% vs 60%

    Albazi

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Costa

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 64 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Costa

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Costa

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Albazi

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Costa

  • Reach / length

    68.0" vs 67.0"

    Albazi

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Albazi

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Costa

  • Takedown reaction

    80% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Costa

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 30

    Costa

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 80% vs 82%

    Costa

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Albazi

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker.

    Albazi

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Albazi

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Albazi

Tape

AlbaziMetricCosta
2.47SLpM3.86
3.74SApM3.25
41%Str Acc51%
63%Str Def60%
1.18TD Avg0.77
25%TD Acc27%
80%TD Def82%
0.44Sub Avg0.38
0.14KD/150.51
5'8"Reach5'7"
32Age30

Amir Albazi

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Alessandro Costa

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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