OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 1, 2026 · Asu Almabayev 51% · Submission · Distance · waiting on the result

Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi

Asu Almabayev
KazakhstanKazakhstan

Asu Almabayev

“Zulfikar”

Unranked · 24-3 · wrestler · Orthodox · 32 · IQ B 74

Dar Pro Team Kazakhstan · Kazakhstan

VS
Kyoji Horiguchi
JapanJapan

Kyoji Horiguchi

“Karate Kid”

Unranked · 36-6 · striker · Orthodox · 35 · IQ B 71

American Top Team · Japan

Asu Almabayev

51.2%

Kyoji Horiguchi

48.8%

Model win probability · confidence 43%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Almabayev 51 — the tape favors chain-wrestling grappler

Asu Almabayev is the model side at 51.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Almabayev (ground 88) into Horiguchi (TD reaction 62). Ground game is the clearest separator: Almabayev 88 (A) vs Horiguchi 37 (D). Almabayev brings 4.7 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Horiguchi's 79% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Almabayev

    Almabayev 88 (A) vs Horiguchi 37 (D). Almabayev brings 4.7 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Horiguchi's 79% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Durability

    Horiguchi

    Horiguchi 85 (A) vs Almabayev 79 (B+). Horiguchi has been finished by strikes 0 times; Almabayev 0.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Horiguchi

    Horiguchi 51 (C) vs Almabayev 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Horiguchi (3.8 SLpM at 57%).

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Horiguchi

    Horiguchi 65 (C+) vs Almabayev 62 (C+). Horiguchi absorbs 3.28/min at 60% defense; Almabayev is a softer target at 3.80 SApM.

Path · Almabayev

Almabayev has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Horiguchi defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Horiguchi

Horiguchi has to stuff the first takedown (62 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Almabayev is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler. Horiguchi is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +3 toward Almabayev — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Almabayev 88 (A) vs Horiguchi 37 (D). Almabayev brings 4.7 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Horiguchi's 79% takedown defense. Durability: Horiguchi 85 (A) vs Almabayev 79 (B+). Horiguchi has been finished by strikes 0 times; Almabayev 0. Punching agility: Horiguchi 51 (C) vs Almabayev 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Horiguchi (3.8 SLpM at 57%).

The finish path leans the mat (43% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AlmabayevTraitHoriguchi
74 B
IQ
71 B
88 A
Ground
37 D
62 C+
Defense
65 C+
47 D
Counter
48 D
57 C
Reaction
60 C
47 D
Agility
51 C
62 C+
TD react
62 C+
79 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
43%
Decision
38%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

25%

R2

17%

R3

20%

Dist

38%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Almabayev (ground 88) into Horiguchi (TD reaction 62).

  • Ground game (tape)

    88 vs 37

    Almabayev

  • Striking differential

    -1.52 vs 0.49 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Horiguchi

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Almabayev

  • Damage ratio

    0.60 vs 1.15 landed/absorbed

    Horiguchi

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.28 vs 3.77

    Horiguchi

  • Striking defense

    63% vs 60%

    Almabayev

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Almabayev (ground 88) into Horiguchi (TD reaction 62).

    Almabayev

  • Striking efficiency

    61% vs 57%

    Almabayev

  • Fight IQ

    B 74 vs B 71 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Almabayev

  • Reach / length

    65.0" vs 63.0"

    Almabayev

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Horiguchi

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 35

    Almabayev

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Horiguchi

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Horiguchi

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 66% vs 79%

    Horiguchi

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Horiguchi

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Horiguchi

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Almabayev

  • Counter punching

    47 vs 48

    Horiguchi

  • Takedown reaction

    66% vs 79% hips on the shot

    Almabayev

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Almabayev

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Almabayev

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Almabayev

Tape

AlmabayevMetricHoriguchi
2.28SLpM3.77
3.80SApM3.28
61%Str Acc57%
63%Str Def60%
4.74TD Avg1.61
46%TD Acc41%
66%TD Def79%
1.44Sub Avg0.11
0.10KD/150.13
5'5"Reach5'3"
32Age35

Asu Almabayev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Kyoji Horiguchi

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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