OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Matheus Camilo 52% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Jai Herbert / Decision - Unanimous)

Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert

Matheus Camilo
BrazilBrazil

Matheus Camilo

“Jaguar”

Unranked · 11-3 · wrestler · Orthodox · 25 · IQ C 54

Xtreme Couture · Brazil

VS
Jai Herbert
EnglandEngland

Jai Herbert

“Black Country Banger”

Unranked · 14-6-1 · striker · Orthodox · 38 · IQ C 55

Renegade Jiu-Jitsu · England

Matheus Camilo

51.7%

Jai Herbert

48.3%

Model win probability · confidence 44%

Desk

51.7% / 48.3%

Market

63.2% / 36.8%

Moneyline

-186 / +164

Edge

−11.5% Herbert

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Herbert. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Camilo 52 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Matheus Camilo is the model side at 51.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Camilo (ground 72) into Herbert (TD reaction 63). Ground game is the clearest separator: Camilo 72 (B) vs Herbert 18 (D). Camilo brings 4.4 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Herbert's 83% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Camilo

    Camilo 72 (B) vs Herbert 18 (D). Camilo brings 4.4 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Herbert's 83% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Herbert

    Herbert 63 (C+) vs Camilo 49 (D). When the shot comes, Herbert stuffs it at 83% — Camilo is at 67%.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Herbert

    Herbert 63 (C+) vs Camilo 62 (C+). Herbert absorbs 3.48/min at 62% defense; Camilo is a softer target at 3.83 SApM.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Herbert

    Herbert 45 (D) vs Camilo 43 (D). Herbert's return is the live one (0.27 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Camilo's entries.

Path · Camilo

Camilo has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Herbert defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Herbert

Herbert has to stuff the first takedown (63 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Camilo is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Herbert is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -2 toward Herbert — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Camilo 72 (B) vs Herbert 18 (D). Camilo brings 4.4 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Herbert's 83% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Herbert 63 (C+) vs Camilo 49 (D). When the shot comes, Herbert stuffs it at 83% — Camilo is at 67%. Striking defense: Herbert 63 (C+) vs Camilo 62 (C+). Herbert absorbs 3.48/min at 62% defense; Camilo is a softer target at 3.83 SApM.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (48%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

CamiloTraitHerbert
54 C
IQ
55 C
72 B
Ground
18 D
62 C+
Defense
63 C+
43 D
Counter
45 D
59 C
Reaction
60 C+
44 D
Agility
42 D
49 D
TD react
63 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
26%
Submission
26%
Decision
48%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

14%

R3

16%

Dist

48%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.8 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Camilo (ground 72) into Herbert (TD reaction 63).

  • Ground game (tape)

    72 vs 18

    Camilo

  • Striking differential

    -1.64 vs -0.29 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Herbert

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Camilo

  • Reach / length

    69.0" vs 77.0"

    Herbert

  • Damage ratio

    0.57 vs 0.92 landed/absorbed

    Herbert

  • Takedown reaction

    67% vs 83% hips on the shot

    Herbert

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.19 vs 3.19

    Herbert

  • Age-adjusted curve

    25 vs 38

    Camilo

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Camilo (ground 72) into Herbert (TD reaction 63).

    Camilo

  • Striking defense

    64% vs 62%

    Camilo

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 51%

    Camilo

  • Fight IQ

    C 54 vs C 55 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Herbert

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Camilo

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 67% vs 83%

    Herbert

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Herbert

  • Counter punching

    43 vs 45

    Herbert

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Herbert

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Camilo

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Herbert

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Camilo

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Camilo

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Camilo

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Camilo

Tape

CamiloMetricHerbert
2.19SLpM3.19
3.83SApM3.48
53%Str Acc51%
64%Str Def62%
4.43TD Avg0.42
54%TD Acc21%
67%TD Def83%
0.63Sub Avg0.00
0.20KD/150.27
5'9"Reach6'5"
25Age38

Matheus Camilo

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Jai Herbert

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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