OctagonEdge

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 29, 2026 · Jacobe Smith 91% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored hit (Jacobe Smith / KO/TKO)

Jacobe Smith vs Bruce Whitehead

Jacobe Smith
USAUSA

Jacobe Smith

“Cobe”

Unranked · 12-0 · striker · Southpaw · 30 · IQ B+ 78

Fortis MMA · USA

VS
Bruce Whitehead
USAUSA

Bruce Whitehead

“The Goose”

Unranked · 8-2 · hybrid · -- · 29 · IQ C 59

WAR Training Center · USA

Jacobe Smith

91.0%

Bruce Whitehead

9.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

Desk

91.0% / 9.0%

Market

89.6% / 10.4%

Moneyline

-1182 / +833

Edge

+1.4% Smith

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk tracks the market on Smith. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Smith 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Jacobe Smith is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Smith (ground 81) into Whitehead (TD reaction 55). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Smith 81 (B+) vs Whitehead 19 (D). Smith brings 7.8 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Whitehead's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Smith

    Smith 81 (B+) vs Whitehead 19 (D). Smith brings 7.8 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Whitehead's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Smith

    Smith 90 (A) vs Whitehead 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Smith (6.9 SLpM at 72%).

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Smith

    Smith 78 (B+) vs Whitehead 59 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Smith (B+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Smith

    Smith 73 (B) vs Whitehead 57 (C). Smith absorbs 2.19/min at 54% defense; Whitehead is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · Smith

Smith has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Whitehead defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Whitehead

Whitehead has to stuff the first takedown (55 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 73 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Whitehead attacking takedown reaction with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Smith is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Whitehead is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +19 toward Smith — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Smith 81 (B+) vs Whitehead 19 (D). Smith brings 7.8 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Whitehead's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: Smith 90 (A) vs Whitehead 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Smith (6.9 SLpM at 72%). Fight IQ: Smith 78 (B+) vs Whitehead 59 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Smith (B+ vs C).

The finish path leans strikes (39% KO/TKO vs 28% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Whitehead attacking takedown reaction with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SmithTraitWhitehead
78 B+
IQ
59 C
81 B+
Ground
19 D
73 B
Defense
57 C
52 C
Counter
37 D
58 C
Reaction
59 C
90 A
Agility
39 D
50 C
TD react
55 C
85 A
Chin
82 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
39%
Submission
28%
Decision
34%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

30%

R2

18%

R3

19%

Dist

34%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Smith (ground 81) into Whitehead (TD reaction 55). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    4.70 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Smith

  • Damage ratio

    3.15 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Smith

  • Striking efficiency

    72% vs 0%

    Smith

  • Ground game (tape)

    81 vs 19

    Smith

  • Output (SLpM)

    6.89 vs 0.00

    Smith

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Smith

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Smith

  • Fight IQ

    B+ 78 vs C 59 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Smith

  • Striking defense

    54% vs 68%

    Whitehead

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C

    Smith

  • Counter punching

    52 vs 37

    Smith

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Smith (ground 81) into Whitehead (TD reaction 55). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Smith

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Smith

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Smith

  • Takedown reaction

    54% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Whitehead

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 54% vs 85%

    Whitehead

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Smith

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 29

    Whitehead

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Whitehead

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 72.0"

    Smith

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Smith

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Smith

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Smith

Tape

SmithMetricWhitehead
6.89SLpM0.00
2.19SApM4.60
72%Str Acc0%
54%Str Def68%
7.78TD Avg0.00
92%TD Acc0%
54%TD Def85%
0.71Sub Avg0.00
0.70KD/150.10
6'0"Reach—
30Age29

Jacobe Smith

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Bruce Whitehead

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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