OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Women's Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Daria Zhelezniakova 56% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Alice Pereira / KO/TKO)

Alice Pereira vs Daria Zhelezniakova

Alice Pereira
BrazilBrazil

Alice Pereira

“Golden Girl”

Unranked · 7-1 · striker · Orthodox · 20 · IQ C+ 63

Life MMA · Brazil

VS
Daria Zhelezniakova
RussiaRussia

Daria Zhelezniakova

“Iron Lady”

Unranked · 10-3 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C 53

MMA Factory · Russia

Alice Pereira

43.6%

Daria Zhelezniakova

56.4%

Model win probability · confidence 49%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Zhelezniakova 56 — the tape favors pocket striker

Daria Zhelezniakova is the model side at 56.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Ground game is the clearest separator: Zhelezniakova 27 (D) vs Pereira 15 (D). Zhelezniakova brings 0.3 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Pereira's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Zhelezniakova

    Zhelezniakova 27 (D) vs Pereira 15 (D). Zhelezniakova brings 0.3 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Pereira's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Pereira

    Pereira 63 (C+) vs Zhelezniakova 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Pereira (C+ vs C).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Pereira

    Pereira 69 (B) vs Zhelezniakova 58 (C). When the shot comes, Pereira stuffs it at 85% — Zhelezniakova is at 84%.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Pereira

    Pereira 45 (D) vs Zhelezniakova 37 (D). Pereira's return is the live one (0.35 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Zhelezniakova's entries.

Path · Pereira

Pereira has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Zhelezniakova

Zhelezniakova has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Pereira defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Zhelezniakova is built as: Pocket striker. Pereira is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -10 toward Pereira — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Zhelezniakova 27 (D) vs Pereira 15 (D). Zhelezniakova brings 0.3 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Pereira's 85% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Pereira 63 (C+) vs Zhelezniakova 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Pereira (C+ vs C). Takedown reaction: Pereira 69 (B) vs Zhelezniakova 58 (C). When the shot comes, Pereira stuffs it at 85% — Zhelezniakova is at 84%.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (66%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

PereiraTraitZhelezniakova
63 C+
IQ
53 C
15 D
Ground
27 D
63 C+
Defense
66 C+
45 D
Counter
37 D
66 C+
Reaction
65 C+
46 D
Agility
50 D
69 B
TD react
58 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
26%
Submission
9%
Decision
66%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

14%

R2

9%

R3

11%

Dist

66%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    -0.78 vs 0.98 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Zhelezniakova

  • Damage ratio

    0.78 vs 1.31 landed/absorbed

    Zhelezniakova

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 63 vs C 53 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Pereira

  • Ground game (tape)

    15 vs 27

    Zhelezniakova

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.83 vs 4.13

    Zhelezniakova

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 84% hips on the shot

    Pereira

  • Counter punching

    45 vs 37

    Pereira

  • Striking efficiency

    51% vs 46%

    Pereira

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 68.0"

    Pereira

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 60%

    Pereira

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Pereira

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Zhelezniakova

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Zhelezniakova

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Zhelezniakova

  • Age-adjusted curve

    20 vs 30

    Pereira

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Zhelezniakova

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Pereira

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 84%

    Pereira

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Pereira

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Pereira

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Pereira

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Pereira

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Pereira

Tape

PereiraMetricZhelezniakova
2.83SLpM4.13
3.61SApM3.15
51%Str Acc46%
62%Str Def60%
0.00TD Avg0.31
0%TD Acc100%
85%TD Def84%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.35KD/150.10
5'11"Reach5'8"
20Age30

Alice Pereira

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Daria Zhelezniakova

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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