OctagonEdge

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 20, 2026 · Baisangur Susurkaev 73% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Donte Johnson vs Baisangur Susurkaev

Donte Johnson
USAUSA

Donte Johnson

“Lockjaw”

Unranked · 9-0 · hybrid · Southpaw · 27 · IQ B 72

Gnosis Combat Sports · USA

VS
Baisangur Susurkaev
RussiaRussia

Baisangur Susurkaev

“Hunter”

Unranked · 12-0 · striker · Orthodox · 25 · IQ B+ 79

Kill Cliff FC · Russia

Donte Johnson

26.9%

Baisangur Susurkaev

73.1%

Model win probability · confidence 69%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Susurkaev 73 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Baisangur Susurkaev is the model side at 73.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Susurkaev 79 (B+) vs Johnson 60 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Susurkaev (5.7 SLpM at 65%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Susurkaev

    Susurkaev 79 (B+) vs Johnson 60 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Susurkaev (5.7 SLpM at 65%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Johnson

    Johnson 58 (C) vs Susurkaev 50 (C). Johnson's return is the live one (0.62 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Susurkaev's entries.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Susurkaev

    Susurkaev 70 (B) vs Johnson 63 (C+). Susurkaev absorbs 2.59/min at 57% defense; Johnson is a softer target at 3.51 SApM.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Susurkaev

    Susurkaev 79 (B+) vs Johnson 72 (B). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Susurkaev (B+ vs B).

Path · Johnson

Johnson wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Susurkaev a long look at durability.

Path · Susurkaev

Volume. Susurkaev wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Johnson a clean reset.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Johnson attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Susurkaev is built as: Volume pressure striker. Johnson is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +7 toward Susurkaev — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Susurkaev 79 (B+) vs Johnson 60 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Susurkaev (5.7 SLpM at 65%). Counter punching: Johnson 58 (C) vs Susurkaev 50 (C). Johnson's return is the live one (0.62 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Susurkaev's entries. Striking defense: Susurkaev 70 (B) vs Johnson 63 (C+). Susurkaev absorbs 2.59/min at 57% defense; Johnson is a softer target at 3.51 SApM.

The finish path leans strikes (36% KO/TKO vs 17% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Johnson attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

JohnsonTraitSusurkaev
72 B
IQ
79 B+
53 C
Ground
48 D
63 C+
Defense
70 B
58 C
Counter
50 C
68 C+
Reaction
65 C+
60 C+
Agility
79 B+
66 C+
TD react
66 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
36%
Submission
17%
Decision
47%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

25%

R2

14%

R3

14%

Dist

47%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.4 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -0.40 vs 3.15 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Susurkaev

  • Damage ratio

    0.89 vs 2.22 landed/absorbed

    Susurkaev

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.11 vs 5.74

    Susurkaev

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Susurkaev

  • Fight IQ

    B 72 vs B+ 79 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Susurkaev

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 79.0"

    Susurkaev

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 57%

    Johnson

  • Counter punching

    58 vs 50

    Johnson

  • Ground game (tape)

    53 vs 48

    Johnson

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Johnson

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Susurkaev

  • Striking efficiency

    60% vs 65%

    Susurkaev

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Susurkaev

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Johnson

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Johnson

  • Takedown reaction

    77% vs 77% hips on the shot

    Johnson

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 77% vs 77%

    Johnson

  • Age-adjusted curve

    27 vs 25

    Johnson

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Johnson

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Johnson

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Johnson

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Johnson

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Johnson

Tape

JohnsonMetricSusurkaev
3.11SLpM5.74
3.51SApM2.59
60%Str Acc65%
62%Str Def57%
2.00TD Avg2.09
100%TD Acc26%
77%TD Def77%
0.67Sub Avg0.84
0.62KD/150.47
6'2"Reach6'7"
27Age25

Donte Johnson

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Baisangur Susurkaev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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