OctagonEdge

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 20, 2026 · Terrance McKinney 84% · Submission · Round 1 · waiting on the result

Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney

Jim Miller
USAUSA

Jim Miller

“A-10”

Unranked · 39-19 · grappler · Southpaw · 43 · IQ C 58

Sussex County MMA · USA

VS
Terrance McKinney
USAUSA

Terrance McKinney

“T. Wrecks”

Unranked · 18-9 · striker · Switch · 31 · IQ C 59

Fusion X-Cel · USA

Jim Miller

15.5%

Terrance McKinney

84.5%

Model win probability · confidence 82%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

McKinney 84 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Terrance McKinney is the model side at 84.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: McKinney (ground 78) into Miller (TD reaction 62). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: McKinney 80 (B+) vs Miller 40 (D). Hand speed / output lean McKinney (6.5 SLpM at 59%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    McKinney

    McKinney 80 (B+) vs Miller 40 (D). Hand speed / output lean McKinney (6.5 SLpM at 59%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    McKinney

    McKinney 78 (B+) vs Miller 63 (C+). McKinney brings 3.3 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Miller's 79% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    McKinney

    McKinney 73 (B) vs Miller 63 (C+). McKinney absorbs 2.31/min at 55% defense; Miller is a softer target at 3.58 SApM.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Miller

    Miller 62 (C+) vs McKinney 54 (C). When the shot comes, Miller stuffs it at 79% — McKinney is at 72%.

Path · Miller

Miller has to stuff the first takedown (62 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 73 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · McKinney

McKinney has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Miller defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Miller attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. McKinney is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot. Miller is built as: Submission hunter — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +1 toward McKinney — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: McKinney 80 (B+) vs Miller 40 (D). Hand speed / output lean McKinney (6.5 SLpM at 59%). Ground game: McKinney 78 (B+) vs Miller 63 (C+). McKinney brings 3.3 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Miller's 79% takedown defense. Striking defense: McKinney 73 (B) vs Miller 63 (C+). McKinney absorbs 2.31/min at 55% defense; Miller is a softer target at 3.58 SApM.

The finish path leans the mat (44% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Miller attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MillerTraitMcKinney
58 C
IQ
59 C
63 C+
Ground
78 B+
63 C+
Defense
73 B
43 D
Counter
43 D
59 C
Reaction
64 C+
40 D
Agility
80 B+
62 C+
TD react
54 C
76 B
Chin
78 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
36%
Submission
44%
Decision
21%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

35%

R2

21%

R3

22%

Dist

21%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: McKinney (ground 78) into Miller (TD reaction 62). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -0.66 vs 4.22 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    McKinney

  • Damage ratio

    0.82 vs 2.83 landed/absorbed

    McKinney

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.92 vs 6.53

    McKinney

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    McKinney

  • Ground game (tape)

    63 vs 78

    McKinney

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 55%

    Miller

  • Striking efficiency

    49% vs 59%

    McKinney

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    McKinney

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    McKinney

  • Takedown reaction

    79% vs 72% hips on the shot

    Miller

  • Age-adjusted curve

    43 vs 31

    McKinney

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 73.5"

    McKinney

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: McKinney (ground 78) into Miller (TD reaction 62). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    McKinney

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    McKinney

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    McKinney

  • Fight IQ

    C 58 vs C 59 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    McKinney

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    McKinney

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 79% vs 72%

    Miller

  • Counter punching

    43 vs 43

    Miller

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Miller

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Miller

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Miller

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Miller

Tape

MillerMetricMcKinney
2.92SLpM6.53
3.58SApM2.31
49%Str Acc59%
62%Str Def55%
1.49TD Avg3.31
45%TD Acc40%
79%TD Def72%
1.72Sub Avg2.07
0.28KD/150.52
5'11"Reach6'2"
43Age31

Jim Miller

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Terrance McKinney

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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