OctagonEdge

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 20, 2026 · Chris Duncan 60% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan

Drew Dober
USAUSA

Drew Dober

Unranked · 29-15 · striker · Southpaw · 37 · IQ C 57

Elevation Fight Team · USA

VS
Chris Duncan
ScotlandScotland

Chris Duncan

“The Problem”

Unranked · 15-3 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C 59

American Top Team · Scotland

Drew Dober

39.9%

Chris Duncan

60.1%

Model win probability · confidence 54%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Duncan 60 — the tape favors pocket striker

Chris Duncan is the model side at 60.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Duncan (ground 56) into Dober (TD reaction 60). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Duncan 56 (C) vs Dober 22 (D). Duncan brings 2.9 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Dober's 83% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Duncan

    Duncan 56 (C) vs Dober 22 (D). Duncan brings 2.9 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Dober's 83% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Dober

    Dober 46 (D) vs Duncan 36 (D). Dober's return is the live one (0.75 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Duncan's entries.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Dober

    Dober 60 (C) vs Duncan 51 (C). When the shot comes, Dober stuffs it at 83% — Duncan is at 73%.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Dober

    Dober 65 (C+) vs Duncan 61 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Dober.

Path · Dober

Dober has to stuff the first takedown (60 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Duncan

Duncan has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Dober defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Duncan is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Dober is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +1 toward Duncan — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Duncan 56 (C) vs Dober 22 (D). Duncan brings 2.9 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Dober's 83% takedown defense. Counter punching: Dober 46 (D) vs Duncan 36 (D). Dober's return is the live one (0.75 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Duncan's entries. Takedown reaction: Dober 60 (C) vs Duncan 51 (C). When the shot comes, Dober stuffs it at 83% — Duncan is at 73%.

The finish path leans the mat (31% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

DoberTraitDuncan
57 C
IQ
59 C
22 D
Ground
56 C
66 C+
Defense
67 C+
46 D
Counter
36 D
65 C+
Reaction
61 C+
55 C
Agility
54 C
60 C
TD react
51 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
25%
Submission
31%
Decision
45%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

25%

R2

15%

R3

15%

Dist

45%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Duncan (ground 56) into Dober (TD reaction 60). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    22 vs 56

    Duncan

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Duncan

  • Striking differential

    1.45 vs 1.92 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Duncan

  • Takedown reaction

    83% vs 73% hips on the shot

    Dober

  • Counter punching

    46 vs 36

    Dober

  • Damage ratio

    1.48 vs 1.66 landed/absorbed

    Duncan

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Duncan

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Duncan (ground 56) into Dober (TD reaction 60). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Duncan

  • Age-adjusted curve

    37 vs 33

    Duncan

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.48 vs 4.83

    Duncan

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Dober

  • Striking efficiency

    46% vs 48%

    Duncan

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 71.0"

    Duncan

  • Fight IQ

    C 57 vs C 59 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Duncan

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 83% vs 73%

    Dober

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 58%

    Dober

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Duncan

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Dober

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Duncan

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Dober

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Dober

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Dober

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Dober

Tape

DoberMetricDuncan
4.48SLpM4.83
3.03SApM2.91
46%Str Acc48%
59%Str Def58%
0.61TD Avg2.92
17%TD Acc41%
83%TD Def73%
0.07Sub Avg0.58
0.75KD/150.16
5'10"Reach5'11"
37Age33

Drew Dober

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Chris Duncan

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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