Octagon Edge

Chris Duncan

“The Problem”

15-3

Age

Height

5'10"

Reach

5'11"

Stance

Orthodox

Camp

American Top Team

Out of

Scotland

Style

striker

Fight IQ

C · 59

Finish rate

27%

Win rate

83%

Career methods

KO/TKO

Sub

Dec

FightMetric

SLpM

4.83

SApM

2.91

Str Acc

48%

Str Def

58%

TD Avg

2.92

TD Acc

41%

TD Def

73%

Sub Avg

0.58

Tape read

Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot

Fight IQ

59C

Thin sample — 0 loaded UFC rows, 18 career fights for Chris Duncan. Reaction and agility are wider intervals.

Ground

Defense

C+

Counter

Reaction

proxy

C+

Agility

proxy

TD react

Chin

What they do well

Durability
Gets through fire. Rarely finished by strikes; the later minutes are still theirs to win.

Where they leak

Counter punching
Limited counter threat. Opponents can miss without paying a finishing tax.
Takedown reaction
A takedown magnet. Low TD defense plus submission losses — this is the hole a grappler builds a camp around.
Punching agility
Heavy or economical. Combinations are chosen, not sprayed — opponents can time the entries.

Scouting report

Chris Duncan “The Problem” is a 33-year-old Orthodox lightweight out of Scotland, camped at American Top Team. The tape read: pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Career mark 15-3-0 — 0 by KO/TKO, 4 by submission, 11 by decision. Fight IQ grades C (59).

What works. Durability is the standout at 85 (A). Gets through fire. Rarely finished by strikes; the later minutes are still theirs to win. Ground game C on 2.92 TD/15 and 0.58 sub attempts. Striking defense C+ at 58% / 2.91 SApM. Counter punching D; punching agility C (output × accuracy × age curve). Takedown reaction C on 73% TD defense. These are tape proxies — not lab reaction times — built from FightMetric rates, finish shares, and 0 loaded UFC rows.

Where it breaks. Counter punching is the soft spot (36, D). Limited counter threat. Opponents can miss without paying a finishing tax. Opponents who out-speed the first exchange and never stay on the centerline have historically been the ones who make this résumé leak. When Duncan loses, it is usually a finish (0 KO, 2 sub) — composure under the first clean hurt is the live question.

The book has no per-fight UFC rows for Duncan yet. This scouting card is carried by career FightMetric rates and the win-method split — treat the reaction and agility marks as wider intervals.

Ground game

56 C

Ground work is situational, not a finishing engine. Expect clinch entries more than a mat cycle.

2.92 takedowns / 15 at 41% accuracy
0.58 submission attempts / 15 · 4 career sub wins

Striking defense

67 C+

Serviceable pocket defense. Can be found, but rarely walks into the same shot twice.

58% striking defense · 2.91 SApM
0 KO/TKO losses in 3 defeats

Counter punching

36 D

Limited counter threat. Opponents can miss without paying a finishing tax.

48% accuracy on 4.83 SLpM
0.16 knockdowns / 15 · 0 KO/TKO wins

Timing & reaction

61 C+

Late on the read. High absorb or a leaking TD defense suggests the first move often belongs to the opponent.

Str def 58% · TD def 73% — the two read-and-react rates
2.91 shots absorbed / min (lower = sees it earlier)

Punching agility

54 C

Heavy or economical. Combinations are chosen, not sprayed — opponents can time the entries.

4.83 SLpM at 48% — output with cleanliness
Throws without paying full retail: 2.91 SApM

Takedown reaction

51 C

A takedown magnet. Low TD defense plus submission losses — this is the hole a grappler builds a camp around.

73% takedown defense — the live reaction to level changes
2 submission losses (once the fight hits the mat)

Durability

85 A

Gets through fire. Rarely finished by strikes; the later minutes are still theirs to win.

0 times finished by strikes in 3 losses
11 decision wins — proof they last and still score

Fight history

Date	Opponent	Res	Method	Rnd	Sig
No UFC tape loaded for this fighter yet.