UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Lightweight · 5 rounds
Opening locked Sep 15, 2026 · Tom Nolan 75% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan
BrazilRenato Moicano
Unranked · 21-7-1 · striker · Orthodox · 37 · IQ C 60
American Top Team · Brazil
AustraliaTom Nolan
“Big Train”
Unranked · 11-1 · striker · Southpaw · 26 · IQ C+ 64
Team Compton Training Centre · Australia
Renato Moicano
25.7%
Tom Nolan
74.3%
Model win probability · confidence 77%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Nolan 74 — the tape favors pocket striker
Tom Nolan is the model side at 74.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Nolan into a striker with 14% takedown defense. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Nolan 67 (C+) vs Moicano 21 (D). When the shot comes, Nolan stuffs it at 81% — Moicano is at 14%.
- 01
Takedown reaction
NolanNolan 67 (C+) vs Moicano 21 (D). When the shot comes, Nolan stuffs it at 81% — Moicano is at 14%.
- 02
Timing & reaction
NolanNolan 67 (C+) vs Moicano 43 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Nolan.
- 03
Striking defense
NolanNolan 67 (C+) vs Moicano 56 (C). Nolan absorbs 2.91/min at 58% defense; Moicano is a softer target at 3.10 SApM.
- 04
Durability
NolanNolan 85 (A) vs Moicano 74 (B). Nolan has been finished by strikes 0 times; Moicano 0.
Path · Moicano
Moicano wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Nolan a long look at durability.
Path · Nolan
Nolan wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Moicano a long look at durability.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Moicano attacking counter punching with durability.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries and control time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Nolan is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Moicano is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +5 toward Nolan — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Nolan 67 (C+) vs Moicano 21 (D). When the shot comes, Nolan stuffs it at 81% — Moicano is at 14%. Timing & reaction: Nolan 67 (C+) vs Moicano 43 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Nolan. Striking defense: Nolan 67 (C+) vs Moicano 56 (C). Nolan absorbs 2.91/min at 58% defense; Moicano is a softer target at 3.10 SApM.
The finish path leans strikes (34% KO/TKO vs 28% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Moicano attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries and control time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
30%
R2
16%
R3
12%
R4
1%
R5
2%
Dist
39%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 13.7 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Nolan into a striker with 14% takedown defense. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
0.16 vs 1.93 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
NolanTakedown reaction
14% vs 81% hips on the shot
NolanDamage ratio
1.05 vs 1.66 landed/absorbed
NolanOutput (SLpM)
3.18 vs 4.84
NolanTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
NolanGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
NolanStriking defense
52% vs 58%
NolanStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Nolan into a striker with 14% takedown defense. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
NolanPocket defense (tape)
C vs C+
NolanFight IQ
C 60 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
NolanAge-adjusted curve
37 vs 26
NolanDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
NolanCounter punching
52 vs 45
MoicanoStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 68 vs 50
MoicanoTakedown mismatch
TD def 35% vs 81%
NolanStriking efficiency
56% vs 52%
MoicanoGround game (tape)
49 vs 45
MoicanoReach / length
72.0" vs 73.0"
NolanCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
MoicanoPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
NolanRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/0 UFC rows
NolanLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
MoicanoChampionship / 5-round
Five-round experience matters
Moicano
Tape
Renato Moicano
Fighter 4867356
Submission · R2 3:14
Beneil Dariush
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Islam Makhachev
Submission · R1 4:05
Fighter 4895362
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · R2 5:00
Fighter 4339490
KO/TKO · R2 4:11
Fighter 2951202
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Tom Nolan
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
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