OctagonEdge

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 5, 2026 · Tommy Gantt 58% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Tommy Gantt / Submission)

Drakkar Klose vs Tommy Gantt

Drakkar Klose
USAUSA

Drakkar Klose

Unranked · 16-3-1 · striker · Orthodox · 38 · IQ C+ 66

MMA LAB · USA

VS
Tommy Gantt
USAUSA

Tommy Gantt

Unranked · 12-0 · wrestler · Orthodox · 33 · IQ B+ 80

The Academy · USA

Drakkar Klose

42.4%

Tommy Gantt

57.6%

Model win probability · confidence 51%

Desk

42.4% / 57.6%

Market

24.8% / 75.2%

Moneyline

+292 / -342

Edge

+17.6% Klose

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Klose. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Gantt 58 — the tape favors chain-wrestling grappler

Tommy Gantt is the model side at 57.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Gantt (ground 87) into Klose (TD reaction 67). Ground game is the clearest separator: Gantt 87 (A) vs Klose 28 (D). Gantt brings 11.3 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Klose's 79% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Gantt

    Gantt 87 (A) vs Klose 28 (D). Gantt brings 11.3 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Klose's 79% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Klose

    Klose 67 (C+) vs Gantt 43 (D). When the shot comes, Klose stuffs it at 79% — Gantt is at 40%.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Gantt

    Gantt 80 (B+) vs Klose 66 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Gantt (B+ vs C+).

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Klose

    Klose 59 (C) vs Gantt 51 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Klose.

Path · Klose

Klose has to stuff the first takedown (67 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Gantt

Gantt has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Klose defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Gantt is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler — suspect hips against the shot. Klose is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +13 toward Gantt — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Gantt 87 (A) vs Klose 28 (D). Gantt brings 11.3 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Klose's 79% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Klose 67 (C+) vs Gantt 43 (D). When the shot comes, Klose stuffs it at 79% — Gantt is at 40%. Fight IQ: Gantt 80 (B+) vs Klose 66 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Gantt (B+ vs C+).

The finish path leans the mat (34% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

KloseTraitGantt
66 C+
IQ
80 B+
28 D
Ground
87 A
66 C+
Defense
63 C+
54 C
Counter
58 C
59 C
Reaction
51 C
59 C
Agility
57 C
67 C+
TD react
43 D
85 A
Chin
83 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
26%
Submission
34%
Decision
40%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

25%

R2

16%

R3

18%

Dist

40%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Gantt (ground 87) into Klose (TD reaction 67).

  • Ground game (tape)

    28 vs 87

    Gantt

  • Striking differential

    1.14 vs -0.66 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Klose

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Gantt

  • Striking efficiency

    64% vs 85%

    Gantt

  • Takedown reaction

    79% vs 40% hips on the shot

    Klose

  • Damage ratio

    1.37 vs 0.82 landed/absorbed

    Klose

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs B+ 80 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Gantt

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 76.5"

    Gantt

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.25 vs 2.92

    Klose

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 79% vs 40%

    Klose

  • Age-adjusted curve

    38 vs 33

    Gantt

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Gantt

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 62%

    Gantt

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Klose

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Gantt (ground 87) into Klose (TD reaction 67).

    Gantt

  • Counter punching

    54 vs 58

    Gantt

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Klose

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Klose

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Klose

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Klose

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Klose

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Klose

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Klose

Tape

KloseMetricGantt
4.25SLpM2.92
3.11SApM3.58
64%Str Acc85%
60%Str Def62%
1.49TD Avg11.29
27%TD Acc36%
79%TD Def40%
0.00Sub Avg1.41
0.28KD/150.22
5'10"Reach6'5"
38Age33

Drakkar Klose

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Tommy Gantt

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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