OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Middleweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Sep 2, 2026 · Christian Leroy Duncan 55% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored miss (Brendan Allen / Submission)

Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan

Brendan Allen
BrazilBrazil

Brendan Allen

“All In”

Unranked · 27-7 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ B 68

Kill Cliff FC · Brazil

VS
Christian Leroy Duncan
EnglandEngland

Christian Leroy Duncan

“CLD”

Unranked · 15-2 · striker · Switch · 31 · IQ C+ 67

Range MMA Academy · England

Brendan Allen

45.4%

Christian Leroy Duncan

54.6%

Model win probability · confidence 47%

Desk

45.4% / 54.6%

Market

50.2% / 49.8%

Moneyline

-107 / -105

Edge

−4.8% Duncan

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk leans off the market on Duncan. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Duncan 55 — the tape favors pocket striker

Christian Leroy Duncan is the model side at 54.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Allen (ground 57) into Duncan (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Allen 57 (C) vs Duncan 18 (D). Allen brings 1.6 TD/15 and 14 sub wins into Duncan's 83% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Allen

    Allen 57 (C) vs Duncan 18 (D). Allen brings 1.6 TD/15 and 14 sub wins into Duncan's 83% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Duncan

    Duncan 74 (B) vs Allen 58 (C). Hand speed / output lean Duncan (4.5 SLpM at 64%).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Duncan

    Duncan 62 (C+) vs Allen 51 (C). Duncan's return is the live one (0.82 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Allen's entries.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Duncan

    Duncan 73 (B) vs Allen 63 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Duncan.

Path · Allen

Allen has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Duncan defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Duncan

Duncan has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Duncan is built as: Pocket striker. Allen is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -1 toward Allen — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Allen 57 (C) vs Duncan 18 (D). Allen brings 1.6 TD/15 and 14 sub wins into Duncan's 83% takedown defense. Punching agility: Duncan 74 (B) vs Allen 58 (C). Hand speed / output lean Duncan (4.5 SLpM at 64%). Counter punching: Duncan 62 (C+) vs Allen 51 (C). Duncan's return is the live one (0.82 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Allen's entries.

The finish path leans strikes (45% KO/TKO vs 18% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AllenTraitDuncan
68 B
IQ
67 C+
57 C
Ground
18 D
64 C+
Defense
66 C+
51 C
Counter
62 C+
63 C+
Reaction
73 B
58 C
Agility
74 B
62 C+
TD react
68 B
77 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
45%
Submission
18%
Decision
37%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

29%

R2

17%

R3

13%

R4

2%

R5

2%

Dist

37%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 13.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Allen (ground 57) into Duncan (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    57 vs 18

    Allen

  • Striking differential

    0.25 vs 1.41 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Duncan

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Allen

  • Damage ratio

    1.07 vs 1.46 landed/absorbed

    Duncan

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Duncan

  • Counter punching

    51 vs 62

    Duncan

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.59 vs 4.45

    Duncan

  • Reach / length

    75.0" vs 79.0"

    Duncan

  • Takedown reaction

    79% vs 83% hips on the shot

    Duncan

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Duncan

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Duncan

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Allen (ground 57) into Duncan (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Allen

  • Striking efficiency

    60% vs 64%

    Duncan

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 59%

    Allen

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Duncan

  • Fight IQ

    B 68 vs C+ 67 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Allen

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Duncan

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Duncan

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 79% vs 83%

    Duncan

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 31

    Allen

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Allen

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Allen

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Allen

Tape

AllenMetricDuncan
3.59SLpM4.45
3.34SApM3.04
60%Str Acc64%
61%Str Def59%
1.56TD Avg0.43
42%TD Acc20%
79%TD Def83%
1.14Sub Avg0.00
0.16KD/150.82
6'3"Reach6'7"
30Age31

Brendan Allen

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Christian Leroy Duncan

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

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