UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes · Flyweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Sep 16, 2026 · Opponent TBA 50% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result
Brandon Moreno vs Charles Johnson
MexicoBrandon Moreno
“The Assassin Baby”
#2 · 23-10-2 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 58
Fortis MMA · Mexico
USACharles Johnson
“InnerG”
Unranked · 20-9 · striker · Switch · 35 · IQ C+ 65
Murcielago MMA · USA
Brandon Moreno
23.8%
Charles Johnson
76.2%
Model win probability · confidence 81%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Johnson 76 — the tape favors pocket striker
Charles Johnson is the model side at 76.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Moreno (ground 43) into Johnson (TD reaction 65). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Johnson 65 (C+) vs Moreno 33 (D). When the shot comes, Johnson stuffs it at 83% — Moreno is at 46%.
- 01
Takedown reaction
JohnsonJohnson 65 (C+) vs Moreno 33 (D). When the shot comes, Johnson stuffs it at 83% — Moreno is at 46%.
- 02
Timing & reaction
JohnsonJohnson 63 (C+) vs Moreno 39 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Johnson.
- 03
Punching agility
JohnsonJohnson 57 (C) vs Moreno 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Johnson (4.6 SLpM at 55%).
- 04
Ground game
MorenoMoreno 43 (D) vs Johnson 25 (D). Moreno brings 1.4 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Johnson's 83% takedown defense.
Path · Moreno
Moreno has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Johnson defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
Path · Johnson
Johnson has to stuff the first takedown (65 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 51 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Moreno attacking ground game with durability.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Johnson is built as: Pocket striker. Moreno is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward Johnson — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Johnson 65 (C+) vs Moreno 33 (D). When the shot comes, Johnson stuffs it at 83% — Moreno is at 46%. Timing & reaction: Johnson 63 (C+) vs Moreno 39 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Johnson. Punching agility: Johnson 57 (C) vs Moreno 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Johnson (4.6 SLpM at 55%).
The finish path leans the mat (32% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Moreno attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
24%
R2
16%
R3
18%
Dist
42%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.3 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Moreno (ground 43) into Johnson (TD reaction 65). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
-1.87 vs 1.61 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
JohnsonDamage ratio
0.66 vs 1.54 landed/absorbed
JohnsonTakedown reaction
46% vs 83% hips on the shot
JohnsonGround game (tape)
43 vs 25
MorenoRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 7/0 UFC rows
JohnsonTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
JohnsonPocket defense (tape)
C vs C+
JohnsonPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
JohnsonFight IQ
C 58 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
JohnsonOutput (SLpM)
3.60 vs 4.60
JohnsonDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
JohnsonStriking efficiency
50% vs 55%
JohnsonGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
JohnsonStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Moreno (ground 43) into Johnson (TD reaction 65). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
MorenoStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 62 vs 50
MorenoStriking defense
61% vs 59%
MorenoAge-adjusted curve
32 vs 35
MorenoTakedown mismatch
TD def 45% vs 83%
JohnsonCounter punching
44 vs 45
JohnsonCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
MorenoLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
JohnsonReach / length
70.0" vs 70.0"
MorenoChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Moreno
Tape
Brandon Moreno
Fighter 5147737
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Fighter 4917772
KO/TKO · R2 2:24
Fighter 4997217
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Fighter 4684848
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Brandon Royval
Decision - Split · R5 5:00
Alexandre Pantoja
Decision - Split · R5 5:00
Alexandre Pantoja
Decision - Split · R5 5:00
Charles Johnson
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
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