OctagonEdge

UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 16, 2026 · Opponent TBA 50% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Joe Pyfer vs Bo Nickal

Joe Pyfer
USAUSA

Joe Pyfer

“Bodybagz”

Unranked · 16-3 · hybrid · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 63

Marquez MMA · USA

VS
Bo Nickal
USAUSA

Bo Nickal

Unranked · 9-1 · hybrid · Southpaw · 30 · IQ B+ 80

American Top Team · USA

Joe Pyfer

32.3%

Bo Nickal

67.7%

Model win probability · confidence 62%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Nickal 68 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Bo Nickal is the model side at 67.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Nickal (ground 80) into Pyfer (TD reaction 57). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Nickal 80 (B+) vs Pyfer 46 (D). Nickal brings 3.1 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Pyfer's 79% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Nickal

    Nickal 80 (B+) vs Pyfer 46 (D). Nickal brings 3.1 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Pyfer's 79% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Nickal

    Nickal 69 (B) vs Pyfer 49 (D). Nickal's return is the live one (0.84 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Pyfer's entries.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Nickal

    Nickal 70 (B) vs Pyfer 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Nickal (3.4 SLpM at 68%).

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Nickal

    Nickal 80 (B+) vs Pyfer 63 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Nickal (B+ vs C+).

Path · Pyfer

Pyfer has to stuff the first takedown (57 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Nickal

Nickal has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Pyfer defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Nickal is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. Pyfer is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +16 toward Nickal — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Nickal 80 (B+) vs Pyfer 46 (D). Nickal brings 3.1 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Pyfer's 79% takedown defense. Counter punching: Nickal 69 (B) vs Pyfer 49 (D). Nickal's return is the live one (0.84 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Pyfer's entries. Punching agility: Nickal 70 (B) vs Pyfer 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Nickal (3.4 SLpM at 68%).

The finish path leans strikes (47% KO/TKO vs 42% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

PyferTraitNickal
63 C+
IQ
80 B+
46 D
Ground
80 B+
64 C+
Defense
64 C+
49 D
Counter
69 B
70 B
Reaction
68 B
54 C
Agility
70 B
57 C
TD react
64 C+
85 A
Chin
79 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
47%
Submission
42%
Decision
12%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

45%

R2

23%

R3

20%

Dist

12%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 7 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Nickal (ground 80) into Pyfer (TD reaction 57). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    46 vs 80

    Nickal

  • Striking efficiency

    46% vs 68%

    Nickal

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 63 vs B+ 80 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Nickal

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Nickal

  • Counter punching

    49 vs 69

    Nickal

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Nickal

  • Takedown reaction

    79% vs 73% hips on the shot

    Nickal

  • Striking differential

    0.15 vs -0.06 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Pyfer

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Nickal (ground 80) into Pyfer (TD reaction 57). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Nickal

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Pyfer

  • Damage ratio

    1.04 vs 0.98 landed/absorbed

    Pyfer

  • Reach / length

    75.0" vs 76.0"

    Nickal

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Nickal

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.52 vs 3.36

    Pyfer

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Pyfer

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 79% vs 73%

    Pyfer

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 61%

    Nickal

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Pyfer

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Pyfer

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 30

    Pyfer

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Pyfer

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Pyfer

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Pyfer

Tape

PyferMetricNickal
3.52SLpM3.36
3.37SApM3.42
46%Str Acc68%
61%Str Def61%
1.45TD Avg3.12
31%TD Acc58%
79%TD Def73%
0.91Sub Avg2.27
0.74KD/150.84
6'3"Reach6'4"
30Age30

Joe Pyfer

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Bo Nickal

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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