OctagonEdge

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Sep 9, 2026 · Opponent TBA 50% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke

Stephen Thompson
USAUSA

Stephen Thompson

“Wonderboy”

#6 · 17-9-1 · striker · Orthodox · 43 · IQ C 58

Team Upstate Karate · USA

VS
Charles Radtke
USAUSA

Charles Radtke

“Chuck Buffalo”

Unranked · 12-5 · hybrid · Orthodox · 36 · IQ B 71

Valle Flow Striking · USA

Stephen Thompson

50.9%

Charles Radtke

49.1%

Model win probability · confidence 43%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Thompson 51 — the tape favors power striker

Stephen Thompson is the model side at 50.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Radtke (ground 48) into Thompson (TD reaction 65). Ground game is the clearest separator: Radtke 48 (D) vs Thompson 20 (D). Radtke brings 2.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Thompson's 84% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Radtke

    Radtke 48 (D) vs Thompson 20 (D). Radtke brings 2.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Thompson's 84% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Radtke

    Radtke 71 (B) vs Thompson 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Radtke (B vs C).

  3. 03

    Durability

    Radtke

    Radtke 85 (A) vs Thompson 77 (B+). Radtke has been finished by strikes 0 times; Thompson 0.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Thompson

    Thompson 65 (C+) vs Radtke 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Thompson.

Path · Thompson

Thompson has to stuff the first takedown (65 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Radtke

Radtke has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Thompson defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Thompson is built as: Power striker. Radtke is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -13 toward Radtke — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Radtke 48 (D) vs Thompson 20 (D). Radtke brings 2.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Thompson's 84% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Radtke 71 (B) vs Thompson 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Radtke (B vs C). Durability: Radtke 85 (A) vs Thompson 77 (B+). Radtke has been finished by strikes 0 times; Thompson 0.

The finish path leans strikes (38% KO/TKO vs 19% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ThompsonTraitRadtke
58 C
IQ
71 B
20 D
Ground
48 D
65 C+
Defense
62 C+
62 C+
Counter
57 C
65 C+
Reaction
58 C
52 C
Agility
53 C
65 C+
TD react
66 C+
77 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
38%
Submission
19%
Decision
43%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

30%

R2

15%

R3

13%

Dist

43%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.8 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Radtke (ground 48) into Thompson (TD reaction 65).

  • Striking differential

    0.87 vs -1.22 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Thompson

  • Ground game (tape)

    20 vs 48

    Radtke

  • Damage ratio

    1.27 vs 0.67 landed/absorbed

    Thompson

  • Fight IQ

    C 58 vs B 71 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Radtke

  • Striking efficiency

    50% vs 68%

    Radtke

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.05 vs 2.50

    Thompson

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Radtke

  • Reach / length

    75.0" vs 72.0"

    Thompson

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 63%

    Radtke

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Radtke

  • Age-adjusted curve

    43 vs 36

    Radtke

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Radtke (ground 48) into Thompson (TD reaction 65).

    Radtke

  • Counter punching

    62 vs 57

    Thompson

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Thompson

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Thompson

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Radtke

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Thompson

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 84% vs 77%

    Thompson

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Radtke

  • Takedown reaction

    84% vs 77% hips on the shot

    Radtke

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Thompson

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Thompson

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Thompson

Tape

ThompsonMetricRadtke
4.05SLpM2.50
3.18SApM3.72
50%Str Acc68%
60%Str Def63%
0.23TD Avg1.99
36%TD Acc44%
84%TD Def77%
0.00Sub Avg0.50
0.62KD/150.33
6'3"Reach6'0"
43Age36

Stephen Thompson

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Charles Radtke

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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