OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 22, 2026 · Xiao Long 90% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi

Xiao Long
ChinaChina

Xiao Long

Unranked · 27-11 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C+ 64

UFC Performance Institute Shanghai · China

VS
Francesco Nuzzi
ItalyItaly

Francesco Nuzzi

“Berserker”

Unranked · 11-2 · hybrid · -- · 29 · IQ C 54

Wolfetemple · Italy

Xiao Long

90.1%

Francesco Nuzzi

9.9%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

Desk

90.1% / 9.9%

Market

61.2% / 38.8%

Moneyline

-174 / +148

Edge

+29.0% Long

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Long. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Long 90 — the tape favors pocket striker

Xiao Long is the model side at 90.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Long 61 (C+) vs Nuzzi 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Long (5.1 SLpM at 53%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Long

    Long 61 (C+) vs Nuzzi 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Long (5.1 SLpM at 53%).

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Long

    Long 68 (C+) vs Nuzzi 55 (C). When the shot comes, Long stuffs it at 82% — Nuzzi is at 85%.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Long

    Long 68 (B) vs Nuzzi 57 (C). Long absorbs 2.83/min at 58% defense; Nuzzi is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Long

    Long 27 (D) vs Nuzzi 17 (D). Long brings 0.7 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Nuzzi's 85% takedown defense.

Path · Long

Long has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Nuzzi defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Nuzzi

Nuzzi has to stuff the first takedown (55 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 68 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Nuzzi attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Long is built as: Pocket striker. Nuzzi is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +10 toward Long — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Long 61 (C+) vs Nuzzi 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Long (5.1 SLpM at 53%). Takedown reaction: Long 68 (C+) vs Nuzzi 55 (C). When the shot comes, Long stuffs it at 82% — Nuzzi is at 85%. Striking defense: Long 68 (B) vs Nuzzi 57 (C). Long absorbs 2.83/min at 58% defense; Nuzzi is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

The finish path leans the mat (35% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Nuzzi attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

LongTraitNuzzi
64 C+
IQ
54 C
27 D
Ground
17 D
68 B
Defense
57 C
38 D
Counter
37 D
64 C+
Reaction
59 C
61 C+
Agility
39 D
68 C+
TD react
55 C
83 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
35%
Decision
45%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

15%

R3

18%

Dist

45%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.6 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    2.23 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Long

  • Damage ratio

    1.79 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Long

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 0%

    Long

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.06 vs 0.00

    Long

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 68%

    Nuzzi

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 64 vs C 54 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Long

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Long

  • Ground game (tape)

    27 vs 17

    Long

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Long

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C

    Long

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Nuzzi

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Long

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Long

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Long

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 69.0"

    Long

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Nuzzi

  • Counter punching

    38 vs 37

    Long

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Long

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 85%

    Nuzzi

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 29

    Nuzzi

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Long

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Long

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Long

Tape

LongMetricNuzzi
5.06SLpM0.00
2.83SApM4.60
53%Str Acc0%
58%Str Def68%
0.74TD Avg0.00
28%TD Acc0%
82%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'10"Reach5'9"
28Age29

Xiao Long

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Francesco Nuzzi

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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