OctagonEdge

UFC 332 · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Mick Parkin 57% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Johnny Walker vs Mick Parkin

Johnny Walker
BrazilBrazil

Johnny Walker

Unranked · 22-10 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C 59

Xtreme Couture · Brazil

VS
Mick Parkin
EnglandEngland

Mick Parkin

Unranked · 10-1 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 66

Team Fish Tank · England

Johnny Walker

43.3%

Mick Parkin

56.7%

Model win probability · confidence 50%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Parkin 57 — the tape favors pocket striker

Mick Parkin is the model side at 56.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Walker 55 (C) vs Parkin 43 (D). Walker's return is the live one (0.51 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Parkin's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Walker

    Walker 55 (C) vs Parkin 43 (D). Walker's return is the live one (0.51 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Parkin's entries.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Parkin

    Parkin 66 (C+) vs Walker 59 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Parkin (C+ vs C).

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Parkin

    Parkin 67 (C+) vs Walker 65 (C+). Parkin absorbs 2.95/min at 59% defense; Walker is a softer target at 3.23 SApM.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Walker

    Walker 66 (C+) vs Parkin 64 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Walker.

Path · Walker

Walker wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Parkin a long look at durability.

Path · Parkin

Parkin wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Walker a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Parkin is built as: Pocket striker. Walker is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +7 toward Parkin — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Walker 55 (C) vs Parkin 43 (D). Walker's return is the live one (0.51 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Parkin's entries. Fight IQ: Parkin 66 (C+) vs Walker 59 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Parkin (C+ vs C). Striking defense: Parkin 67 (C+) vs Walker 65 (C+). Parkin absorbs 2.95/min at 59% defense; Walker is a softer target at 3.23 SApM.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (48%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

WalkerTraitParkin
59 C
IQ
66 C+
36 D
Ground
37 D
65 C+
Defense
67 C+
55 C
Counter
43 D
66 C+
Reaction
64 C+
61 C+
Agility
61 C+
65 C+
TD react
67 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
42%
Submission
9%
Decision
48%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

23%

R2

14%

R3

15%

Dist

48%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.7 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    0.67 vs 1.75 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Parkin

  • Damage ratio

    1.21 vs 1.59 landed/absorbed

    Parkin

  • Fight IQ

    C 59 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Parkin

  • Counter punching

    55 vs 43

    Walker

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.90 vs 4.70

    Parkin

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Parkin

  • Reach / length

    82.0" vs 79.0"

    Walker

  • Striking efficiency

    59% vs 54%

    Walker

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 59%

    Walker

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 30

    Parkin

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Parkin

  • Takedown reaction

    84% vs 79% hips on the shot

    Parkin

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Walker

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Parkin

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 84% vs 79%

    Walker

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Parkin

  • Ground game (tape)

    36 vs 37

    Parkin

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Walker

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Walker

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Walker

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Walker

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Walker

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Walker

Tape

WalkerMetricParkin
3.90SLpM4.70
3.23SApM2.95
59%Str Acc54%
60%Str Def59%
0.36TD Avg1.38
50%TD Acc46%
84%TD Def79%
0.73Sub Avg0.23
0.51KD/150.25
6'10"Reach6'7"
34Age30

Johnny Walker

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Mick Parkin

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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