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UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · TBA 50% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid

Keiichiro Nakamura
JapanJapan

Keiichiro Nakamura

Unranked · 8-1 · striker · Southpaw · 37 · IQ D 44

Ex-Fight · Japan

VS
Ollie Schmid
New ZealandNew Zealand

Ollie Schmid

“The Hungarian Stallion”

Unranked · 4-3 · striker · -- · 25 · IQ D 45

City Kickboxing · New Zealand

Keiichiro Nakamura

62.5%

Ollie Schmid

37.5%

Model win probability · confidence 56%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Nakamura 62 — the tape favors pocket striker

Keiichiro Nakamura is the model side at 62.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Nakamura 51 (C) vs Schmid 40 (D). Hand speed / output lean Nakamura (4.5 SLpM at 42%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Nakamura

    Nakamura 51 (C) vs Schmid 40 (D). Hand speed / output lean Nakamura (4.5 SLpM at 42%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Nakamura

    Nakamura 41 (D) vs Schmid 34 (D). Nakamura's return is the live one (0.62 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Schmid's entries.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Schmid

    Schmid 59 (C) vs Nakamura 55 (C). When the shot comes, Schmid stuffs it at 85% — Nakamura is at 85%.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Nakamura

    Nakamura 66 (C+) vs Schmid 63 (C+). Nakamura absorbs 3.03/min at 59% defense; Schmid is a softer target at 3.47 SApM.

Path · Nakamura

Volume. Nakamura wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Schmid a clean reset.

Path · Schmid

Schmid wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Nakamura a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Nakamura is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Schmid is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -2 toward Schmid — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Nakamura 51 (C) vs Schmid 40 (D). Hand speed / output lean Nakamura (4.5 SLpM at 42%). Counter punching: Nakamura 41 (D) vs Schmid 34 (D). Nakamura's return is the live one (0.62 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Schmid's entries. Takedown reaction: Schmid 59 (C) vs Nakamura 55 (C). When the shot comes, Schmid stuffs it at 85% — Nakamura is at 85%.

The finish path leans strikes (41% KO/TKO vs 12% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

NakamuraTraitSchmid
44 D
IQ
45 D
12 D
Ground
12 D
66 C+
Defense
63 C+
41 D
Counter
34 D
65 C+
Reaction
65 C+
51 C
Agility
40 D
55 C
TD react
59 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
41%
Submission
12%
Decision
46%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

15%

R3

16%

Dist

46%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    1.45 vs -0.24 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Nakamura

  • Damage ratio

    1.48 vs 0.93 landed/absorbed

    Nakamura

  • Striking efficiency

    42% vs 30%

    Nakamura

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.48 vs 3.23

    Nakamura

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Nakamura

  • Age-adjusted curve

    37 vs 25

    Schmid

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Nakamura

  • Counter punching

    41 vs 34

    Nakamura

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 62%

    Schmid

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 72.0"

    Schmid

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Schmid

  • Fight IQ

    D 44 vs D 45 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Schmid

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Nakamura

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Nakamura

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Nakamura

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Schmid

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Nakamura

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Nakamura

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Nakamura

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Nakamura

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Nakamura

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 12

    Nakamura

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Nakamura

Tape

NakamuraMetricSchmid
4.48SLpM3.23
3.03SApM3.47
42%Str Acc30%
59%Str Def62%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.62KD/150.10
5'10"Reach—
37Age25

Keiichiro Nakamura

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Ollie Schmid

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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