OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Welterweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Sean Brady 52% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean Brady

Gabriel Bonfim
BrazilBrazil

Gabriel Bonfim

“Marretinha”

Unranked · 20-1 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ B 68

Cerrado MMA · Brazil

VS
Sean Brady
USAUSA

Sean Brady

Unranked · 19-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 33 · IQ B+ 80

Marquez MMA · USA

Gabriel Bonfim

48.0%

Sean Brady

52.0%

Model win probability · confidence 44%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Brady 52 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Sean Brady is the model side at 52.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Brady 56 (C) vs Bonfim 36 (D). Brady's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Bonfim's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Brady

    Brady 56 (C) vs Bonfim 36 (D). Brady's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Bonfim's entries.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Brady

    Brady 80 (B+) vs Bonfim 68 (B). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Brady (B+ vs B).

  3. 03

    Durability

    Brady

    Brady 83 (A) vs Bonfim 73 (B). Brady has been finished by strikes 0 times; Bonfim 0.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Brady

    Brady 62 (C+) vs Bonfim 56 (C). Hand speed / output lean Brady (4.0 SLpM at 68%).

Path · Bonfim

Bonfim wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Brady a long look at durability.

Path · Brady

Brady wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Bonfim a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Brady is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — high-IQ problem solver. Bonfim is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +12 toward Brady — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Brady 56 (C) vs Bonfim 36 (D). Brady's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Bonfim's entries. Fight IQ: Brady 80 (B+) vs Bonfim 68 (B). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Brady (B+ vs B). Durability: Brady 83 (A) vs Bonfim 73 (B). Brady has been finished by strikes 0 times; Bonfim 0.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (55%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BonfimTraitBrady
68 B
IQ
80 B+
67 C+
Ground
70 B
67 C+
Defense
65 C+
36 D
Counter
56 C
61 C+
Reaction
59 C
56 C
Agility
62 C+
65 C+
TD react
64 C+
73 B
Chin
83 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
22%
Submission
23%
Decision
55%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

18%

R2

12%

R3

9%

R4

2%

R5

3%

Dist

55%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 17.4 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid.

  • Striking differential

    1.83 vs 0.75 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Bonfim

  • Striking efficiency

    48% vs 68%

    Brady

  • Fight IQ

    B 68 vs B+ 80 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Brady

  • Damage ratio

    1.62 vs 1.23 landed/absorbed

    Bonfim

  • Counter punching

    36 vs 56

    Brady

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.76 vs 3.96

    Bonfim

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Brady

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Brady

  • Ground game (tape)

    67 vs 70

    Brady

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Brady

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 60%

    Brady

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 33

    Bonfim

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Bonfim

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Bonfim

  • Takedown reaction

    75% vs 71% hips on the shot

    Bonfim

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Bonfim

  • Reach / length

    72.5" vs 72.0"

    Bonfim

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Bonfim

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 75% vs 71%

    Bonfim

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Bonfim

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid.

    Bonfim

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Bonfim

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Bonfim

Tape

BonfimMetricBrady
4.76SLpM3.96
2.93SApM3.21
48%Str Acc68%
58%Str Def60%
2.57TD Avg3.53
54%TD Acc53%
75%TD Def71%
1.03Sub Avg0.91
0.13KD/150.10
6'1"Reach6'0"
28Age33

Gabriel Bonfim

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Sean Brady

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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