OctagonEdge

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Grant Dawson 62% · Submission · Distance · waiting on the result

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev

Grant Dawson
USAUSA

Grant Dawson

“KGD”

Unranked · 24-3-1 · hybrid · Switch · 32 · IQ B 74

American Top Team · USA

VS
Nurullo Aliev
TajikistanTajikistan

Nurullo Aliev

“Tajik Eagle”

Unranked · 12-0 · hybrid · Orthodox · 25 · IQ B 72

Kaizen MMA · Tajikistan

Grant Dawson

62.4%

Nurullo Aliev

37.6%

Model win probability · confidence 56%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Dawson 62 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Grant Dawson is the model side at 62.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Dawson (ground 76) into Aliev (TD reaction 66). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Dawson 76 (B) vs Aliev 42 (D). Dawson brings 3.8 TD/15 and 14 sub wins into Aliev's 77% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Dawson

    Dawson 76 (B) vs Aliev 42 (D). Dawson brings 3.8 TD/15 and 14 sub wins into Aliev's 77% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Durability

    Aliev

    Aliev 85 (A) vs Dawson 75 (B). Aliev has been finished by strikes 0 times; Dawson 0.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Dawson

    Dawson 56 (C) vs Aliev 47 (D). Dawson's return is the live one (0.20 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Aliev's entries.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Dawson

    Dawson 57 (C) vs Aliev 50 (C). Hand speed / output lean Dawson (3.2 SLpM at 65%).

Path · Dawson

Dawson has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Aliev defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Aliev

Aliev has to stuff the first takedown (66 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Dawson is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Aliev is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +2 toward Dawson — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Dawson 76 (B) vs Aliev 42 (D). Dawson brings 3.8 TD/15 and 14 sub wins into Aliev's 77% takedown defense. Durability: Aliev 85 (A) vs Dawson 75 (B). Aliev has been finished by strikes 0 times; Dawson 0. Counter punching: Dawson 56 (C) vs Aliev 47 (D). Dawson's return is the live one (0.20 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Aliev's entries.

The finish path leans the mat (43% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

DawsonTraitAliev
74 B
IQ
72 B
76 B
Ground
42 D
63 C+
Defense
62 C+
56 C
Counter
47 D
60 C
Reaction
63 C+
57 C
Agility
50 C
64 C+
TD react
66 C+
75 B
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
27%
Submission
43%
Decision
30%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

29%

R2

19%

R3

22%

Dist

30%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Dawson (ground 76) into Aliev (TD reaction 66). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    76 vs 42

    Dawson

  • Striking differential

    -0.27 vs -0.93 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Dawson

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Dawson

  • Striking efficiency

    65% vs 57%

    Dawson

  • Damage ratio

    0.92 vs 0.75 landed/absorbed

    Dawson

  • Counter punching

    56 vs 47

    Dawson

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Aliev

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Dawson (ground 76) into Aliev (TD reaction 66). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Dawson

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.21 vs 2.72

    Dawson

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Dawson

  • Fight IQ

    B 74 vs B 72 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Dawson

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Aliev

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 25

    Aliev

  • Takedown reaction

    70% vs 77% hips on the shot

    Aliev

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Aliev

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 63%

    Aliev

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 70% vs 77%

    Aliev

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Dawson

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Dawson

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 72.0"

    Dawson

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Dawson

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Dawson

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Dawson

Tape

DawsonMetricAliev
3.21SLpM2.72
3.48SApM3.65
65%Str Acc57%
62%Str Def63%
3.81TD Avg2.12
40%TD Acc44%
70%TD Def77%
1.12Sub Avg0.30
0.20KD/150.23
6'0"Reach6'0"
32Age25

Grant Dawson

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Nurullo Aliev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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