OctagonEdge

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Catch Weight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Charles Johnson 60% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Charles Johnson / Submission)

Charles Johnson vs Eduardo Chapolin

Charles Johnson
USAUSA

Charles Johnson

“InnerG”

Unranked · 20-9 · striker · Switch · 35 · IQ C+ 65

Murcielago MMA · USA

VS
Eduardo Chapolin
BrazilBrazil

Eduardo Chapolin

Unranked · 15-3 · wrestler · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 61

Bloodline Combat · Brazil

Charles Johnson

60.0%

Eduardo Chapolin

40.0%

Model win probability · confidence 54%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Johnson 60 — the tape favors pocket striker

Charles Johnson is the model side at 60.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Chapolin (ground 72) into Johnson (TD reaction 65). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Chapolin 72 (B) vs Johnson 25 (D). Chapolin brings 5.0 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Johnson's 83% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Chapolin

    Chapolin 72 (B) vs Johnson 25 (D). Chapolin brings 5.0 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Johnson's 83% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Johnson

    Johnson 65 (C+) vs Chapolin 48 (D). When the shot comes, Johnson stuffs it at 83% — Chapolin is at 65%.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Johnson

    Johnson 57 (C) vs Chapolin 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Johnson (4.6 SLpM at 55%).

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Johnson

    Johnson 63 (C+) vs Chapolin 56 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Johnson.

Path · Johnson

Johnson has to stuff the first takedown (65 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Chapolin

Chapolin has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Johnson defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Johnson is built as: Pocket striker. Chapolin is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +4 toward Johnson — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Chapolin 72 (B) vs Johnson 25 (D). Chapolin brings 5.0 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Johnson's 83% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Johnson 65 (C+) vs Chapolin 48 (D). When the shot comes, Johnson stuffs it at 83% — Chapolin is at 65%. Punching agility: Johnson 57 (C) vs Chapolin 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Johnson (4.6 SLpM at 55%).

The finish path leans the mat (33% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

JohnsonTraitChapolin
65 C+
IQ
61 C+
25 D
Ground
72 B
67 C+
Defense
62 C+
45 D
Counter
44 D
63 C+
Reaction
56 C
57 C
Agility
47 D
65 C+
TD react
48 D
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
28%
Submission
33%
Decision
38%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

26%

R2

17%

R3

19%

Dist

38%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Chapolin (ground 72) into Johnson (TD reaction 65). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    1.61 vs -1.27 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Johnson

  • Ground game (tape)

    25 vs 72

    Chapolin

  • Damage ratio

    1.54 vs 0.66 landed/absorbed

    Johnson

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Chapolin

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.60 vs 2.47

    Johnson

  • Takedown reaction

    83% vs 65% hips on the shot

    Johnson

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 63%

    Chapolin

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 65 vs C+ 61 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Johnson

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 67.0"

    Johnson

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Johnson

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Johnson

  • Age-adjusted curve

    35 vs 30

    Chapolin

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Chapolin

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Johnson

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Chapolin (ground 72) into Johnson (TD reaction 65). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Chapolin

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 83% vs 65%

    Johnson

  • Striking efficiency

    55% vs 56%

    Chapolin

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Johnson

  • Counter punching

    45 vs 44

    Johnson

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Johnson

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Johnson

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Johnson

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Johnson

Tape

JohnsonMetricChapolin
4.60SLpM2.47
2.99SApM3.74
55%Str Acc56%
59%Str Def63%
0.44TD Avg5.00
15%TD Acc83%
83%TD Def65%
0.44Sub Avg0.00
0.29KD/150.10
5'10"Reach5'7"
35Age30

Charles Johnson

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Eduardo Chapolin

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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