OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Miles Johns 65% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Miles Johns / KO/TKO)

Miles Johns vs Gianni Vazquez

Miles Johns
USAUSA

Miles Johns

“Chapo”

Unranked · 16-5 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 55

Marathon MMA · USA

VS
Gianni Vazquez
MexicoMexico

Gianni Vazquez

“Kriptonita”

Unranked · 14-6-1 · grappler · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 54

Calmecac Team · Mexico

Miles Johns

64.7%

Gianni Vazquez

35.3%

Model win probability · confidence 59%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Johns 65 — the tape favors pocket striker

Miles Johns is the model side at 64.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Submission threat runs into stout takedown defense — the striker can keep this upright. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Johns 49 (D) vs Vazquez 28 (D). Hand speed / output lean Johns (3.4 SLpM at 49%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Johns

    Johns 49 (D) vs Vazquez 28 (D). Hand speed / output lean Johns (3.4 SLpM at 49%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Johns

    Johns 46 (D) vs Vazquez 29 (D). Johns's return is the live one (0.38 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Vazquez's entries.

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Vazquez

    Vazquez 37 (D) vs Johns 28 (D). Vazquez brings 0.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Johns's 80% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Vazquez

    Vazquez 59 (C) vs Johns 55 (C). When the shot comes, Vazquez stuffs it at 85% — Johns is at 80%.

Path · Johns

Volume. Johns wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Vazquez a clean reset.

Path · Vazquez

Vazquez has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Johns defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling attempts get stuffed; the fight leaks back to the feet. Johns is built as: Pocket striker. Vazquez is built as: Submission hunter. Fight IQ delta is +1 toward Johns — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Johns 49 (D) vs Vazquez 28 (D). Hand speed / output lean Johns (3.4 SLpM at 49%). Counter punching: Johns 46 (D) vs Vazquez 29 (D). Johns's return is the live one (0.38 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Vazquez's entries. Ground game: Vazquez 37 (D) vs Johns 28 (D). Vazquez brings 0.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Johns's 80% takedown defense.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (54%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

JohnsTraitVazquez
55 C
IQ
54 C
28 D
Ground
37 D
64 C+
Defense
61 C+
46 D
Counter
29 D
66 C+
Reaction
65 C+
49 D
Agility
28 D
55 C
TD react
59 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
29%
Submission
16%
Decision
54%

Wrestling attempts get stuffed; the fight leaks back to the feet.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

12%

R3

14%

Dist

54%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Submission threat runs into stout takedown defense — the striker can keep this upright.

  • Striking differential

    -0.06 vs -2.44 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Johns

  • Damage ratio

    0.98 vs 0.40 landed/absorbed

    Johns

  • Striking efficiency

    49% vs 31%

    Johns

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.36 vs 1.60

    Johns

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Vazquez

  • Counter punching

    46 vs 29

    Johns

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Johns

  • Ground game (tape)

    28 vs 37

    Vazquez

  • Reach / length

    68.0" vs 71.0"

    Vazquez

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 65%

    Vazquez

  • Takedown reaction

    80% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Vazquez

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Johns

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Johns

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Johns

  • Fight IQ

    C 55 vs C 54 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Johns

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 80% vs 85%

    Vazquez

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 32

    Vazquez

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Johns

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Johns

  • Style interaction

    Submission threat runs into stout takedown defense — the striker can keep this upright.

    Johns

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Johns

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Johns

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Johns

Tape

JohnsMetricVazquez
3.36SLpM1.60
3.42SApM4.04
49%Str Acc31%
61%Str Def65%
1.22TD Avg0.00
26%TD Acc0%
80%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg2.00
0.38KD/150.10
5'8"Reach5'11"
32Age32

Miles Johns

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Gianni Vazquez

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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