OctagonEdge

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Rafael Tobias 54% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Lucas Fernando / KO/TKO)

Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando

Rafael Tobias
BrazilBrazil

Rafael Tobias

“Bipolar”

Unranked · 14-3 · hybrid · Orthodox · 23 · IQ C+ 67

Chute Boxe - Monstro · Brazil

VS
Lucas Fernando
BrazilBrazil

Lucas Fernando

Unranked · 14-3 · hybrid · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C+ 67

Rizzo RVT · Brazil

Rafael Tobias

53.9%

Lucas Fernando

46.1%

Model win probability · confidence 46%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Tobias 54 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Rafael Tobias is the model side at 53.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Ground game is the clearest separator: Tobias 66 (C+) vs Fernando 58 (C). Tobias brings 2.4 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Fernando's 73% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Tobias

    Tobias 66 (C+) vs Fernando 58 (C). Tobias brings 2.4 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Fernando's 73% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Fernando

    Fernando 43 (D) vs Tobias 35 (D). Fernando's return is the live one (0.16 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Tobias's entries.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Fernando

    Fernando 43 (D) vs Tobias 37 (D). Hand speed / output lean Fernando (1.9 SLpM at 55%).

  4. 04

    Durability

    Fernando

    Fernando 85 (A) vs Tobias 80 (B+). Fernando has been finished by strikes 0 times; Tobias 0.

Path · Tobias

Tobias wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Fernando a long look at durability.

Path · Fernando

Fernando wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Tobias a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Tobias is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fernando is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -0 toward Fernando — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Tobias 66 (C+) vs Fernando 58 (C). Tobias brings 2.4 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Fernando's 73% takedown defense. Counter punching: Fernando 43 (D) vs Tobias 35 (D). Fernando's return is the live one (0.16 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Tobias's entries. Punching agility: Fernando 43 (D) vs Tobias 37 (D). Hand speed / output lean Fernando (1.9 SLpM at 55%).

The finish path leans strikes (29% KO/TKO vs 28% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

TobiasTraitFernando
67 C+
IQ
67 C+
66 C+
Ground
58 C
63 C+
Defense
61 C+
35 D
Counter
43 D
59 C
Reaction
61 C+
37 D
Agility
43 D
65 C+
TD react
65 C+
80 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
29%
Submission
28%
Decision
43%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

23%

R2

16%

R3

18%

Dist

43%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.4 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Striking differential

    -0.86 vs -2.08 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Tobias

  • Striking efficiency

    44% vs 55%

    Fernando

  • Reach / length

    74.5" vs 80.5"

    Fernando

  • Damage ratio

    0.76 vs 0.47 landed/absorbed

    Tobias

  • Ground game (tape)

    66 vs 58

    Tobias

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.77 vs 1.87

    Tobias

  • Counter punching

    35 vs 43

    Fernando

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Tobias

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Fernando

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 64%

    Fernando

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Fernando

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Tobias

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Fernando

  • Age-adjusted curve

    23 vs 29

    Tobias

  • Takedown reaction

    75% vs 73% hips on the shot

    Tobias

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Tobias

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 75% vs 73%

    Tobias

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 67 vs C+ 67 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Fernando

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Tobias

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Tobias

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    Tobias

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Tobias

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Tobias

Tape

TobiasMetricFernando
2.77SLpM1.87
3.63SApM3.95
44%Str Acc55%
62%Str Def64%
2.40TD Avg3.00
33%TD Acc30%
75%TD Def73%
1.60Sub Avg1.00
0.10KD/150.16
6'3"Reach6'9"
23Age29

Rafael Tobias

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Lucas Fernando

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.