OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Yadier del Valle 65% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Yadier del Valle / KO/TKO)

Darren Elkins vs Yadier del Valle

Darren Elkins
USAUSA

Darren Elkins

“The Damage”

Unranked · 29-13 · hybrid · Orthodox · 42 · IQ C+ 67

Team Alpha Male · USA

VS
Yadier del Valle
CubaCuba

Yadier del Valle

“The Cuban Problem”

Unranked · 11-1 · grappler · Southpaw · 30 · IQ B+ 79

Gracie Barra Westchase · Cuba

Darren Elkins

35.2%

Yadier del Valle

64.8%

Model win probability · confidence 59%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

del Valle 65 — the tape favors submission hunter

Yadier del Valle is the model side at 64.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets grappler. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: del Valle 67 (C+) vs Elkins 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean del Valle (4.0 SLpM at 71%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Valle

    del Valle 67 (C+) vs Elkins 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean del Valle (4.0 SLpM at 71%).

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Valle

    del Valle 79 (B+) vs Elkins 67 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with del Valle (B+ vs C+).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Valle

    del Valle 59 (C) vs Elkins 48 (D). del Valle's return is the live one (0.23 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Elkins's entries.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Valle

    del Valle 64 (C+) vs Elkins 56 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with del Valle.

Path · Elkins

Elkins wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying del Valle a long look at durability.

Path · Valle

del Valle wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Elkins a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. del Valle is built as: Submission hunter — southpaw. Elkins is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +13 toward del Valle — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: del Valle 67 (C+) vs Elkins 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean del Valle (4.0 SLpM at 71%). Fight IQ: del Valle 79 (B+) vs Elkins 67 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with del Valle (B+ vs C+). Counter punching: del Valle 59 (C) vs Elkins 48 (D). del Valle's return is the live one (0.23 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Elkins's entries.

The finish path leans the mat (28% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ElkinsTraitValle
67 C+
IQ
79 B+
60 C+
Ground
58 C
64 C+
Defense
65 C+
48 D
Counter
59 C
56 C
Reaction
64 C+
47 D
Agility
67 C+
63 C+
TD react
67 C+
85 A
Chin
82 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
27%
Submission
28%
Decision
45%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

23%

R2

15%

R3

17%

Dist

45%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.5 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets grappler. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -0.01 vs 0.87 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Valle

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 67 vs B+ 79 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Valle

  • Striking efficiency

    55% vs 71%

    Valle

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Valle

  • Damage ratio

    1.00 vs 1.27 landed/absorbed

    Valle

  • Counter punching

    48 vs 59

    Valle

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Valle

  • Age-adjusted curve

    42 vs 30

    Valle

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.40 vs 4.05

    Valle

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Valle

  • Takedown reaction

    74% vs 80% hips on the shot

    Valle

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 69.0"

    Elkins

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Valle

  • Ground game (tape)

    60 vs 58

    Elkins

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 60%

    Elkins

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Elkins

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Valle

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 74% vs 80%

    Valle

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets grappler. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Elkins

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Valle

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Elkins

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Elkins

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Elkins

Tape

ElkinsMetricValle
3.40SLpM4.05
3.41SApM3.18
55%Str Acc71%
61%Str Def60%
2.87TD Avg1.23
34%TD Acc43%
74%TD Def80%
1.07Sub Avg2.05
0.27KD/150.23
5'11"Reach5'9"
42Age30

Darren Elkins

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Yadier del Valle

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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