OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Alexander Poppeck 52% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Jovan Leka / KO/TKO)

Jovan Leka vs Alexander Poppeck

Jovan Leka
SerbiaSerbia

Jovan Leka

Unranked · 14-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 24 · IQ B+ 78

Family Fight Team · Serbia

VS
Alexander Poppeck
GermanyGermany

Alexander Poppeck

“Ironside”

Unranked · 21-6 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C 58

Munich MMA · Germany

Jovan Leka

48.3%

Alexander Poppeck

51.7%

Model win probability · confidence 44%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Poppeck 52 — the tape favors pocket striker

Alexander Poppeck is the model side at 51.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Leka (ground 52) into Poppeck (TD reaction 59). Ground game is the clearest separator: Leka 52 (C) vs Poppeck 13 (D). Leka brings 1.0 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Poppeck's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Leka

    Leka 52 (C) vs Poppeck 13 (D). Leka brings 1.0 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Poppeck's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Leka

    Leka 78 (B+) vs Poppeck 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Leka (B+ vs C).

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Poppeck

    Poppeck 58 (C) vs Leka 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Poppeck (4.0 SLpM at 61%).

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Leka

    Leka 67 (C+) vs Poppeck 59 (C). When the shot comes, Leka stuffs it at 81% — Poppeck is at 85%.

Path · Leka

Leka has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Poppeck defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Poppeck

Poppeck has to stuff the first takedown (59 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Poppeck is built as: Pocket striker. Leka is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -20 toward Leka — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Leka 52 (C) vs Poppeck 13 (D). Leka brings 1.0 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Poppeck's 85% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Leka 78 (B+) vs Poppeck 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Leka (B+ vs C). Punching agility: Poppeck 58 (C) vs Leka 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Poppeck (4.0 SLpM at 61%).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (55%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

LekaTraitPoppeck
78 B+
IQ
58 C
52 C
Ground
13 D
61 C+
Defense
65 C+
54 C
Counter
50 C
62 C+
Reaction
62 C+
48 D
Agility
58 C
67 C+
TD react
59 C
84 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
30%
Submission
15%
Decision
55%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

18%

R2

12%

R3

14%

Dist

55%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Leka (ground 52) into Poppeck (TD reaction 59).

  • Striking differential

    -2.44 vs 0.81 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Poppeck

  • Ground game (tape)

    52 vs 13

    Leka

  • Damage ratio

    0.40 vs 1.25 landed/absorbed

    Poppeck

  • Fight IQ

    B+ 78 vs C 58 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Leka

  • Output (SLpM)

    1.60 vs 4.01

    Poppeck

  • Striking efficiency

    78% vs 61%

    Leka

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Leka

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Leka

  • Striking defense

    65% vs 60%

    Leka

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Poppeck

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Leka (ground 52) into Poppeck (TD reaction 59).

    Leka

  • Age-adjusted curve

    24 vs 34

    Leka

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Poppeck

  • Counter punching

    54 vs 50

    Leka

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Leka

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Poppeck

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 81% vs 85%

    Poppeck

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Poppeck

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Leka

  • Reach / length

    75.0" vs 75.0"

    Leka

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Leka

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Leka

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Leka

Tape

LekaMetricPoppeck
1.60SLpM4.01
4.04SApM3.20
78%Str Acc61%
65%Str Def60%
1.00TD Avg0.00
100%TD Acc0%
81%TD Def85%
1.00Sub Avg0.00
0.17KD/150.10
6'3"Reach6'3"
24Age34

Jovan Leka

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Alexander Poppeck

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.